While this is in no way a new policy, it is a rather startling choice of timing for the statement, which was made at a press conference that really centered on what was happening in Tibet. Wen reminded everyone, "Taiwan and the mainland are both part of One China," and that China will not allow its territory to be split. (「台灣和大陸同屬一個中國。」涉足領土問題、不容分裂。)
Historically, warning-like statements from the Chinese government on the eve of the Taiwanese election have not been well received.
This could boost things another point to a point and a half. I'll again modify my prediction: Ma 52%, Hsieh 48%. Am I being realistic, or assigning too much weight to these recent events? Or will people like the other part of Wen's statement, calling for peace talks under a One China framework?
Check the most recent and promient articles on People's Daily regarding Taiwan: