Share this

Mar 13, 2008

Higher hopes?

I talked to a reporter buddy in Taipei who thinks that Hsieh is winning right now. He's not alone: between the DPP's internal poll that indicates a six point difference and a pro-green scholar on the Green Win Boat he talked to , he's fairly optimistic. I would very much like to be, and hope we can give the KMT a real run for its money, but I'm almost scared to get hopeful.

If there has been a tide change, I'd say it is about the following issues: (1) People really don't want the KMT to run everything by itself again (2) Hsieh may actually be able to work with a KMT legislature (3) Hsieh offers improved trade relations with China but (4) People really are starting to think about what happens if Ma implements a "One China" or "Cross strait" common market (even with all the backtracking Ma has done on what constitutes a common market) and (5) if you throw enough mud, some of it sticks.

I think at best, this is going to be very close. At worst, it'll be a 10-15 point difference. Everything depends on turnout. But this election is not a lost cause.

No comments: