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Mar 19, 2008

Rainy days

Rain is likely in northern Taiwan on election day, according to the Central Weather Bureau. Knowing how much Taipei people hate the rain, this will probably affect their turnout slightly... but I don't yet dare alter my latest election prediction. It's still too early to say just how heavy the rain will be.

And Ma's odds on Swarchy seem to just be getting better.


Tim Maddog said...

A-gu, the Swarchy link is incorrect. BTW, is there any science to that? Whatsoever?

Tim Maddog

阿牛 said...

Whoops, I'll try to fix the link.

It's been found that predictive markets seem to give rather accurate results, no matter whether you force people to bet real money or use play money. People just like to win, and they'll bet their mind, not their heart.

So as the last couple of weeks have been going buy, most of the traders on that site are convinced Ma's odds are just solidifying.

They're not necessarily right, and Taiwan's predictive markets are young enough and have few enough participants that they might be giving accurate results.

Check the IEM for an example: all the media hoopla over a Clinton/Obama battle to the death can't shake the Market's position that solidified in February, that Obama will win.