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Mar 21, 2008

Final Thoughts

Ma has been able to stay on message all week and focus on what he would do if he were elected. It's a positive message and think that's been working out well for him.

Hsieh has said little about his own post-election plans all week, preferring to talk about vote-buying, Tibet, and an out of control KMT. In fact, the only thing I've heard him say this week about future plans is that he'll quit politics if he loses. Tibet and the busing scheme may help Hsieh close the gap, but I don't see it pushing him over the top.

There's an expected turnout of about 75% tomorrow, or around 13 million voters. The first to get 6.5 million will likely have the win, with 7 million being a good "safe" vote count to secure the election.

This is one of Ma's better ads this campaign, more or less a "who's ready?!" sort of ad. It works. I also noticed Hsieh's camp has stolen Obama's "Yes, we can!" motto and put it on their T-shirts for some events.

I see a KMT win coming, but it's hard to crush that seed of hope which is trying to sprout. See you guys on the other side.


Tim Maddog said...

"Yes, we can" is an English variant of the Spanish-language phrase "Sí, se puede" (literally, "Yes, it can be done"), which has been used as a rallying cry since at least 1972.

Tim Maddog

Taiwan Echo said...

a-gu, I never see Ma's win coming. Like you said, never crashed seed of hope, lol ...

I think Hsieh will win, and win big.

In that sense, Ma is in grave danger. KMT keeps sending out threat (prediction? signal? order?) of terror to the public. If their inner circle see that Ma is losing, Ma's value of winning the president for pan-blue vanishes. The only useful value of Ma is for KMT to stage a riot to stop the election (before the voting) or to make a mess out of the society after the losing.

Taiwan Echo said...

I have been a frequent reader and writer on the pan-green forum anti-media (媒抗).

Usually the "members online" swings between 50~200, depending on the time of the day.

Around the Legislative Election back in Jan.12, it peaked at around 400 people online at the same time.

Just now, it's the last midnight before the voting, the number is 638.

Could it be a sign? I don't know, actually. A statistic study over time on this number might tell us something.

Raj said...

Hsieh will not win big - he may not win at all. If he does win it will be close, and he might have the Tibet news to help conjure up the China-fear factor again. Prior to the recent unrest it wasn't as big an issue as it is now.

I think Ma will win simply because he's had good media coverage, some sharp campaigning/advertising, his opponent hasn't focused on bread & butter issues and two minority DPP administrations haven't impressed the electorate. "It's time for a change" is a big voter motivation, and I don't see how Hsieh has convinced people he will bring real change.

Taiwan Echo said...

I think people read different news coverage have totally different views, raj.

I'm not saying that I am definitely on the correct side of prediction. It's just that if you didn't read what I read, it's sure you can't have the seed of hope I have. Just hope that it's enough to get Hsieh win.