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Mar 18, 2008

Could a Ma win be the better outcome?

I have a friend who made several interesting points in a discussion yesterday. He's personally more of a Hsieh fan, but thinks a Ma victory would be best for all. He explained it like this:

+ With the economic meltdown in the US and rising commidity prices, the economy is not likely to do well in the short term. A Ma victory could dispell the myth that the KMT is great at managing the economy. This negative economic outlook is also the basis for most of the other points below.
+ While the legislature has all the real power, the media focus is on the executive. So a Hsieh presidency would be relatively crippled and would get all the blame that probably should go to the legislature. In contrast, a Ma presidency would mean all blame would fall squarely on the KMT's shoulders.
+ The DPP needs some new blood and a re-tooled message anyway, so the loss would give them a better chance to reflect and make necessary changes.
+ It would be almost impossible to sell out Taiwan in just four years, and public pressure would restrain any such attempts; and if Ma tried, there would be huge demonstrations.

What do you think?


Raj said...

I think I've made all those points in the recent past. :)

阿牛 said...

Haha, don't mean to deny you credit or anything. The interesting part was the framing of everything on a poor economic outlook. I still reject the idea that giving the KMT "all the responsibility" will somehow benefit either the country or the DPP, but it is possible their reputation can suffer some.

On the other hand, the media advantage they enjoy really is significant. If next year's economic performance is basically the same as this year's, the media coverage will still switch to largely favorable stories, and you will without doubt see change in public opinion on the economic outlook.

David said...

I am leaning towards this kind of view. However, at the rate you are changing your predictions it going to be Hsieh 52% and Ma 48% by Saturday.

阿牛 said...

I seem like a total tool for changing what I think will happen, and I feel like it to. I'm basing all these predictions on virtually nothing! But it does seem like the race is getting a lot tighter than it was even one week ago.

麥當勞 said...

I don't think that Taiwan economy will grow weaker.

Economist has predicted PPP(GDP) of various countries, including Taiwan. Taiwan has a sharp raise on PPP(GDP) in 2007 and will be even sharper in 2008. The figures are posted in Liberty Post. Just in case for those who forgot the figure, I have collected them there:

For those who believe that "good ruler or ruling party will yield good economy", it is in essence means that the new ruling party will claim all the fruits laid by previous ruling party.