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Mar 10, 2008

Second debate finishes; slight bounce in "polls"

Following the second presidential debate over the weekend, there's been a slight move in the less than reliable opinion polls. Most polls agree on the direction -- slight improvement for Hsieh, slight drop for Ma.

A TVBS poll shows 50% support for Ma and 31% for Hsieh, while China Times shows 49% for Ma and 22% for Hsieh. And Apple daily is publishing a "projection" of the election outcome being conducted by National Sun Yatsen University, based on its own opinion polls between the 5th and 7th of this month. That poll found 41.3% support Ma, 19.8% supporting Hsieh, and 38.9% undecided; based on this, they project a final result on March 22nd of 56.4% of the vote for Ma, 29.9% for Hsieh, and 13.7% being "unpredictable." Apple turns that into a headline of Ma 56%, Hsieh 43%. And Swarchy sees no reason to doubt a Ma victory yet.

Now actually, this might sound rather unbelievable, but yesterday I was contemplating what my prediction should be, and here's what I came up with: 56.5% for Ma, 43.5% Hsieh. There, I'm on the record. So NSYSU and I have very similar ideas of how this will turn out.

It will be interesting to see turn out on election day; will KMT supports be complacent enough about victory to stay home? Will DPP voters be demoralized and stay home? Will everyone be relatively tired of politics and stay home? Or will turnout be higher than last presidential election? Higher turnout would buck the trend.

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