No green card? Everyone will quit!

At this point, DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh, President Chen Shui-bian and legislator Trong R. Chai have all promised to step down from their office or stop their campaign respectively if Ma Ying-jeou can prove he does not have a valid green card.

The DPP gambit is to dangle such a huge piece of meat in front of Ma, the voters will wonder why he doesn't take it by presenting proof in the form of an AIT verification or something similar. If I were Ma, I would take it, and I wonder why he doesn't. But I still don't think this issue will resonate enough with the voters.

Still, with the last DPP poll (historically more accurate than the blue media's) showing a 6 point gap, and with the Tibet situation maybe giving a small group of people second thoughts, the green card issue too may push things within about 4 points.

Given the latest developments, I'd have to predict a 52.5% Ma 47.5% Hsieh spread at this point. So turnout really matters.