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May 11, 2007

Map analysis: Blue 38, Green 23, 13 in air

Updated to reflect the two districts that I should have labeled as competitive.

This was the conclusion I came to now that the map is complete (well, basically complete. I'll still improve it). The 73 districted seats do not look like they'll split in favor of the DPP at all, so they might as wells top talking about getting a majority in the next legislature.

What of the KMT plans for a super majority? If the KMT wins roughly half of the 34 at large seats (a reasonable expectation considering the vote should split fairly evenly), that's 17 seats. Let's also assume they get all 6 of the aboriginal seats and just over half of those "up in the air" seats (7).

That's 68 113 seats, only 60% of the seats and not the 2/3 majority they want. In fact, even if they got all 13 of what I believe to be competitive districts, they'd still only have 74/113 seats (65.4%). So they shouldn't be able to pull it off.

I guess it's illegal to be involved in an election betting ring, but it sure looks fun at this point ...