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Feb 27, 2007

Tension over Chang Wen-ying's (張溫鷹) potential bid

張溫鷹參選? 民進黨中市黨部盼政黨協調 

(中央社記者李錫璋台中市二十七日電)針對前台中市長張溫鷹可能代表台灣團結聯盟黨參選立法委員的傳聞,民主進步黨台中市黨部主任委員張廖萬堅今天表示,這種情況將不利泛綠陣營的選情,黨中央應儘早與台聯黨建立協調機制與溝通平台。
In response to the rumors that former Taichung Mayor Chang Wen-ying (張溫鷹) is interested in running for the legislature under the banner of the TSU, the DPP's Taichung Party headquarters expressed that this would be harmful to the Greater-Green interests (he might win or at least significantly split the vote). He also said the DPP party headquarters should find a way to communicate and talk to the TSU about this.

DPP pulls a fast one on me

民進黨中執會通過立委73選區全額提名 (中央社)

(中央社記者溫貴香台北二十七日電)民進黨中執會今天通過總統與立委初選提名員額,包括總統提名一人,區域立委七十三名,不分區立委三十四名全額提名;未來因應情勢變化,若有需要與台灣團結聯盟協商,將授權黨主席提請中執會變更。
...
其次,有關選區提名涉及對艱困選區的認定,林佳龍表示,中執會決定由黨主席游錫(方方土)、行政院長蘇貞昌、前行政院長謝長廷、總統府秘書長邱義仁、民進黨立法院黨團總召集人柯建銘等中常委組成五人小組,研議對艱困選區的認定標準,針對七十三個立委選區逐一討論,並徵召適當人選參與基隆市長補選,提請中執會通過。
I was thinking they would have nominated legislators in all 73 seats by today, but apparently they only agreed on the number that would be nominated, which is obviously one per district.

The only noteworthy thing here is that a committee of 5 central committee members led by the party chairman will personally decide who to nominate in the 22 more problematic districts.

The party also left room to alter arrangements if they can come to some agreements with the Taiwan Solidarity Union on joint nominations.

228 vicitms request KMT nominate some of their own

受難家屬任不分區立委?藍營重申高度重視

(中央社記者黃名璽台北二十七日電)中國國民黨秘書長吳敦義今天表示,二二八受難者家屬提出希望國民黨能提名受難者家屬擔任不分區立委,由於黨內仍未完成不分區立委提名與審查等相關機制,所以目前不可能有明確答復,但黨內會高度重視受難者家屬意見。
The KMT was asked by 228 victims and their families to nominate some 228 victims for the at large legislative seats.

The KMT responded that the party has not yet fully decided on the legislative nominations and will have to study the relevant mechanisms, so there's no way to give a definitive reply at this piont, but that the party has a great deal of respect for the opinions of 228 victims' families.

Feb 26, 2007

DPP likely to approve nominees for all 73 districts tomorrow

73立委選區均提名 民進黨中執會明可望通過 (中央社)

七十三個選區民進黨均會提名黨籍候選人參選,其中五十一個選區將採用初選產生候選人,另外二十二個艱困選區則由黨主席提名。
51 of the district seats will be chosen by an internal vote, while the 22 more "difficult" districts will have their nominee chosen directly by the party chairman.

I'm looking forward to seeing the results!

TSU makes 17 nominations; Wang seeks to keep legislators around

台聯公布首波立委提名名單共十七位 (中央社)

The Taiwan Solidarity Union announced nominations for 17 legislative districts, and will not rule out making further announcements. For example, Chang Wen-ying (張溫鷹) was expected to be on the list but has not yet been nominated.

As far as coordinating further nominations with the DPP, the TSU said that they won't rule it out, and would in fact be happy to see it, but it must meet the approval of both parties to work (I suppose he's just leaving himself an out).

And now, for the nominations:

Taipei City Dist. 5 -- David Huang 黃適卓
Dist. 6 -- Lee Shang-ren 李先仁

Taipei County Dist. 1 -- Liu I-de 劉一德
Dist. 2 -- Lin Jih-jia 林志嘉
Dist. 5 -- Liao Pen-yen 廖本煙
Dist. 6 -- Hsiao Kwan-yu 蕭貫譽
Dist. 9 -- Chang Mung-hsieh 莊孟學

Taoyuan County Dist. 4 -- Huang Chung-yung 黃宗源
Taichung City Dist. 3 -- Ho Min-hao 何敏豪
Taichung County Dist. 5 -- Ji-zan Gao高基讚

Changhua County Dist. 4 -- Kuo Lin-yung 郭林勇
Yunlin County Dist. 2 -- Yin Ling-ying 尹伶瑛
Chiayi City (no dist named) -- Ling Tzu-chu 凌子楚

Tainan City Dist. 2 -- Chien Lin Hui-chun 錢林慧君
Kaohsung City Dist. 3 -- Tseng Tsahn-deng 曾燦燈
Dist. 4 -- Lo Chih-ming 羅志明
Pingtung County Dist. 3 -- Huang Chao-chan 黃昭展

王金平:須速協調藍委提名 謹防大選勝轉敗 (中央社)

Speaker Wang Jin-pyng is pointing out that under the single-member district system, the pan-blue camp will have many candidates who have an extremely good chance of getting elected but who cannot be nominated; if precautionary measures aren't taken, this will probably result in the same kind of situation as happened when Chiayi County Commissioner Chen Ming-wen (陳明文) switched to the Green camp and was then easily elected. This kind of situation "would probably cause us to lose a presidential election we should now win," and so the party must quickly take care legislative nominations.

Wang Jin-pying also expressed that people have high expectations and are relying on the KMT, and the KMT must win control of both the Executive and Legislative branches to stabalize society and put the people at ease.

Feb 25, 2007

Need a team of political assassins? Pick hot babes.

挑戰艱困立委選區 民進黨找美女組刺客兵團 (中央社)

Reacting to the tight districts, the DPP is going to try to get some hotties to act as their "political assassins" (a term popularized here when Koizumi sent his best politicians after disloyal party members to flush them out of their own districts). Those babes in the sights of the DPP include "credit card goddess" Yang Hui-ji (), "Miss Taiwan" Beverly Chen (陳思羽), and Olympic Judo gold medalist Chen Shih-Hsin (陳詩欣).

The TSU tried the same strategy in the city council elections, but they were going for media stars like former anchors. Who happened to all be hot babes.

Candidates in competitive districts

This table lists candidates who have expressed their intention to run in certain districts considered (by me) to be very competitive.

It's going to be dynamically updated as information comes in. As it stands, I have to put it together in a piecemeal fashion since noone is exactly sure who will get nominations.

LocationGreen candidatesBlue candidates
Changhua County Dist. 1
彰化縣第一選區


Changhua County Dist. 2
彰化縣第二選區


Changhua County Dist. 3
彰化縣第三選區
Lin Chung-mo 林重謨
Changhua County Dist. 4
彰化縣第四選區
Kuo Lin-yung 郭林勇
Miaoli Dist. 1
苗栗縣第一選區

Li Yi-ting 李乙廷
Taichung City Dist. 3
台中市第三選區
Ho Min-hao 何敏豪Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕)
Tsai Chin-lung (蔡錦隆)
Hwang Yih-jiau (黃義交)
Shen Chin-hwei (沈智慧)*
Taichung County Dist. 4
台中縣第四選區
(no one wants this seat)
NPSU's Yen Chin-piao 顏清標
Chi Kuo-tung 紀國棟
Taichung County Dist. 5
台中縣第五選區
Ji-zan Gao 高基讚
Yunlin County Dist. 1
雲林縣第一選區
Chen Hsien-chung (陳憲中)Chang Li-shan (張麗善)
Yunlin County Dist.2
雲林縣第二選區
Lin Su-shan (林樹山)
Yin Ling-ying (尹伶瑛)
Chang Sho-Wen (張碩文)
Hsu Shu-po (許舒博)
Nantou County Dist. 1
南投縣第一選區


Nantou County Dist. 2
南投縣第二選區
Tang Huo-shen 湯火聖
Lin Yun-sheng 林耘生

Pingtung County Dist. 1
屏東縣第一選區
Cheng Tsao-min 鄭朝明
Su Chen-ching 蘇震清
Tseng Yung-chuan 曾永權
Pingtung County Dist. 2
屏東縣第二選區

Liao Wanju 廖婉汝
Wang Jin-shih 王進士
Pingtung County Dist. 3
屏東縣第三選區
Pan Meng-an 潘孟安
Huang Chao-chan 黃昭展
(no one wants this seat)

*Candidates want some seat in Taichung City, not necessarily this district.

Feb 24, 2007

Su announces his run; Legislators extend their claws

Now that Premier Su Chen-chang (蘇貞昌) has announced his intentions to run for President in '08, there are three contenders (the other two being Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) and Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃). The only person expected to announce who hasn't said anything yet is VP Annette Lu (呂秀蓮).

On the KMT side, Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) has officially announced, but Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) hasn't said anything yet. The KMT will probably handle the situation internally for a while longer before deciding how to go forward. And despite many rumors, nobody has said if they will run for the KMT chairmanship yet.

Now, for the legislative side, which is starting to get nasty now that the districts are finalized. For that reason, this will be a pretty long post.

With the number of seats being cut in half, half of the legislators are losing their jobs anyway. That means intra-party fighting. When parties are trying to cooperate, like the KMT and PFP, or possibly the TSU and DPP, things get even more cut throat. CNA had an article today mentioning some of these infighting issues.

Out of 12 districts in Taipei County, at least four of them have multiple KMT candidates interesting in running. Specifically, Lee Sen-Zong (李顯榮) and Wu Yu-sheng (吳育昇) both want to run in Damshui/Beihai 淡水北海; Lin Te-fu (林德福) and Hong Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) both want Yunghe 永和市; current legislators Chang Ching-chung (張慶忠) and Lee Ching-hua (李慶華), as well as former legislator Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), want Jhonghe 中和市; and in Sindian/Wenshan 新店文山, legislators Lo Ming-tsai (羅明才) and Joanna Lei (雷倩) have both expressed intent to run. Liu Shen-liang (劉盛良) is also expected to want to run there.

This is a serious problem for the KMT because they'll have to think of a way to keep some of these legislators from insisting on running as independents if they don't get a nomination (bribe them with another position seems to be the method that is most likely to bring success). These are all KMT stronghold districts (which is why the legislators want them; safe seats) that should be easy wins, but a split could make it harder for them and may give seats to the DPP unexpectedly.

One tool the parties are going to use to handle this is that for the 34 at large seats (excluding those seats guaranteed to Aborigines), at least half of the nominations from each party must be women. That means the female legislators can be packed into the at large seats and free up some room in the districts. Already, rumors fly around that Keelung City's Hsu Shao-ping (徐少萍), Taipei County's Hong Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱), Taoyuan's Chu Fong-chi (朱鳳芝), Yunlin's Hsu Shu-po (許舒博) and Changhua's Lin Tsang-min (林滄敏) will all get those nominations. But those women are doing their best to dispel such rumors, because the decision will be made by the Party's Central Committee and because they don't want their support base to erode before they even get a nomination.

Further, there are questions about the PFP-KMT agreement to nominate only one candidate per district jointly. Can they really pull it off in this situation? Add to the at that the KMT hopes to leave some districts to the "non-partisans" who vote with the blues, and the squeeze is even tighter.

For example, in Kaohsiung City's Zuoying/Nanzih district 左營楠梓, both Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順) and Chang Hsien-Yao (張顯耀) want to run. Non-partisan but blue legislator Yen Chin-piao (顏清標) and Chi Kuo-tung (紀國棟) insist on running in Taichung County Dist. 2. Further, Chiang Lien-Fu (江連福) and Feng Ting-kuo (馮定國) are strugglying to be nominated in Taichung County Dist. 3. And for the three districts of Taichung City, 4 legislators have expressed interest: Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕), Tsai Chin-lung (蔡錦隆), Hwang Yih-jiau (黃義交) and Shen Chin-hwei (沈智慧).

According to legislators on both sides, there is some consensus between the PFP and KMT that if they are unable to agree with each other on a plan, they will just have to nominate seperately.

(BTW, the article I got this information from is titled 內部廝殺加藍橘兄弟相爭 藍委人人自危 .)

Feb 23, 2007

Old Problems Undermine New Security Plan for Baghdad

(NYT) -- I'm just going to post an extended quotation:

It was a translator working with the Americans, interviewed a day after the fact, who had overheard the Iraqi police tipping off the Iraqis. “They were telling people in the neighborhood to hide your weapons from the Americans,” he said. The police were Shiites, he said, and inclined to favor others of their sect in the district, which is mostly Shiite but has a considerable Sunni population.

On another patrol, an American commander said, Iraqi residents told American soldiers that a national policemen had warned them to hide anything incriminating including paraphernalia about Moktada al-Sadr, the Shiite militia leader whose forces are targets of the Baghdad crackdown.

“Families told us he was warning people before we’d come in, ‘If you have this or that, then hide it before they get here,’ ” said First Lt. Andy Moffit, who led a platoon through Shaab and Ur. The major problem with Iraqi forces is not their tactical skill, but their “loyalties and integrity,” he said.

On that score, he said, “We’ve still got years to go.”

Fearful of police ties to the militias, some residents questioned by the Americans about militia activity refused to say anything until the police were led out of the room.

Moreover, some Iraqi forces made little effort to hide their true allegiance. In one police truck an amulet stamped with the image of Imam Hussein, the revered Shiite martyr, swung from a rearview mirror. Next to it was a green Shiite flag, taped to the inside of the windshield. The truck’s radio blared chants heard during Ashura, a Shiite religious holiday.

To many Sunnis the Iraqi forces remain little more than instruments of Shiite hegemony, and the Baghdad plan appears to have done little to change that view.

“They can’t protect the Sunnis in the Shiite districts, and they will never fight the militias because they are from the same sect,” said Ahmed al-Mashhadani, a Sunni resident of west Baghdad, where other Baghdad security operations took place last week. “We don’t trust them, and if American troops leave, we will call back the resistance platoons to protect ourselves.”

American troops in northeast Baghdad heard the same refrain from Shiites who said that only their own militias could protect them from Sunni insurgents. “Before, the Mahdi Army checkpoints used to check each vehicle that came in here,” lamented one Facilities Protection Service guard, a Shiite, at a warehouse in Ur. “Now, the Iraqi police aren’t really checking each vehicle.” ...

The thoroughness of the inspections can vary widely. In one hour at an Iraqi checkpoint in Karada, a mostly Shiite neighborhood, on Feb. 16, the police allowed more than 150 vehicles to pass while pulling over about 25. In only three cases did they open the trunks. They found nothing. At another checkpoint a mile away, near the Green Zone, most of the cars were pulled aside, and eventually traffic snaked for a mile.

Then a sedan containing six young men pulled up to barriers set up by interior ministry commandos. The driver, apparently referring to an unspecified militia, said, “I’m with the guys,” said an Iraqi reporter for The New York Times who had heard the exchange. The car was immediately sent through.


Legislators try to stay skinny

I suppose it's a slow news day for whichever reporter is on the Legislative Yuan beat.

立委跑選區應酬多 維持健康體態各有妙方 (中央社)

(中央社記者林怡君台北二十三日電)面對單一選區競爭,立委都有跑行程的壓力,但應酬多、三餐不定時的情形下,很容易發胖,民進黨籍立委管碧玲自製低卡路里的減肥食譜,成功瘦下八公斤;另一位黨籍立委林重謨則是靠跳國標舞,保持連醫生都稱讚的良好體態。
(roughly paraphrasing for my convenience:) Worried about their prospects in what will be a very competitive election, legislators are struggling to stay thin despite pressure, a hectic travel schedule and irregular meal times. While DPP legislator Kuan Bi-Ling (管碧玲) is on a low calorie diet and has successfully lost 8 kg, fellow legislator Lin Chung-mo (林重謨) has opted to use ballroom dancing to keep his body in such good shape even his doctor voiced approval.

Other than that, three noteworthy pieces of news.

  1. Frank Hsieh wants to go after KMT territory, something the DPP obviously needs to do since their historic best performance was just over 50% of the vote. 謝長廷:未來要搶國民黨的地盤 (CNA)
  2. The PFP remains uncommitted to supporting either Wang or Ma for an '08 run out of concern for crushing themselves by picking the wrong side. Remember, Soong endorsed Wang in the KMT party chairman election, and that probably hurt Wang more than it helped anyway. 挺王或挺馬?親民黨靜觀其變 保持彈性 (CNA)
  3. When burning incense for the late DPP party chairman Huang Hsin-chieh (黃信介), apparently it came into Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) mind to dicide the 2008 DPP presidential nominee by casting the poe/jiao (aka, bamboo divination sticks 筊) and asking Huang what he though. Someone nearby said that Huang had always liked VP Annette Lu the most, so she would probably win. She didn't know what to say to that. BTW, as odd as it sound, this is the same method used to pick Li Yi-ting (李乙廷) for the KMT of Miaoli County, Dist. 1 nomination. 扁呂同上香祭拜信介仙 扁突發奇想:乾脆擲筊 (CNA)

Feb 22, 2007

Badly written AFP article

Taiwan's speaker to meet Hu Jintao: report
 

TAIPEI, Feb 22, 2007 (AFP) - Taiwan's parliament speaker, a prospective presidential candidate who favours improved ties with Beijing, will visit China and meet President Hu Jintao in March, it was reported Thursday.
Does anyone not favor improved ties with Beijing? Actually, one could say the KMT as policy favors the three links and maybe great economic integration with China (or maybe greater Taiwanese investment in China). But the DPP would certainly be happy to have improved ties with Beijing.
Wang Jin-pyng, a political heavyweight from the island's leading opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party, will meet Hu and speak at two Chinese universities, the China Times said.
Wang told reporters there were "still problems to solve...and the itinerary has not been fixed."
The report followed Wang's comment Wednesday that the independence-leaning policies of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) have damaged Taiwan's economy.
That's a little vague of him to say. Fundamentally, the DPP is oriented towards Taiwan-centric policies, and doesn't want any kind of union with China, but why are DPP activities labeled independence-leaning while KMT policies are not labeled pro-unification?

...The China Times said Beijing would extend the same warm welcome to Wang as it did to the island's former opposition leader Lien Chan during his landmark visit in 2005.

They issued a statement agreeing to push for cross-strait talks and seek closer ties in trade, tourism and other areas.

But the improved ties failed to materialise. Instead, Taiwan's President Chen Shui-bian has stepped up his pro-independence campaign in what the opposition calls a tactic to divert public attention away from the corruption scandals dogging him and his family.
Well, to be fair, those plans didn't materialize, but it's not all A-bian's fault. Beijing refused to talk to the DPP government about any of those things. All the recent "pro-independence campaign" activities and corruption scandals also took place long after Lien's visit to the mainland. And why is only the KMT's view of this situation discussed, with no mention of various DPP rationales for the campaign?
China still regards Taiwan as part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary, despite their split in 1949 after the civil war.
At least this points out that China has no interest in whether or not Taiwan actually wants unification (it wouldn't really be reunification since the PRC has never controlled Taiwan). But the Taiwanese/Chinese split is not merely a 1949 split. They've had a complicated relationship for a long time.

Legislative election '07 roundup (02/22)

DPP chairman Yu Shyi-kun (游錫堃) and Frank Hsieh (謝長廷) have both announced their intentions to participate in the '08 presidential election. Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) has been dropping a few hints but hasn't made an official announcement.

Both the Green and blue camps are suffering from intra- and inter-party worry about how to handle the upcoming legislative districts, since there's "a lot of monks but a little porridge" 「僧多粥少」.

There has been a lot of news in the last few days. Here's soem of the major news.

  • Some agreements have been made on who will stand for election where. Current legislator Yu Jan-daw (余政道) will stand for an at large seat to avoid conflict with former minister Yu Cheng-hsien (余政憲), who will go for Kaohsiung County, Dist. 2. Further, legislator Kuan Bi-ling (管碧玲) will go for Kaohsiung City, Dist. 1. The KMT has not yet come to any conclusions on who will stand for what seats.
  • For those districts that can't be arranged by concensus, the DPP hopes to let party member votes count for 30% while public opinion polls taken by the party will count for 70% of the decision. The DPP also hopes to have some hot babes run in districts that look like they'll be hard.
  • DPP legislators are fighting to be on the list for the first 12 at large seats, since they figure they can win at least that many at large seats. Contenders include Chai Trong-rong (蔡同榮), (王幸男) , Wang Sing-nan, Hsu Rong-shu (許榮淑), Hong Chi-chang (洪奇昌) , Tien Chiu-chin (田秋堇), Hsueh Ling (薛凌), Gao Jyh-peng (高志鵬), Shen Fu-hsiung (沈富雄), Tsai Huang-liang ( 煌瑯), and Alice Chiu (邱議瑩). Legislators have denied that 3 seats have already been promised to Chai Trong-rong 蔡同榮, Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) and Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘).
  • The DPP has said they would like to coordinate nominations with the TSU. One unnamed legislatore gave the example of not nominating someone for the Taipei County's 5th district, giving it to TSU legislator Liao Pen-yen (廖本煙), but said the pre-condition was to see if they would step back from other Taipei County seats.
  • Green and blue camps are debating if the party survey's of citizens of a district should be surveying a candidate's popularity among everybody or just among those who are loyal green or blue supporters. Outspoken "Ma-basher" Wang Shih-jian (王世堅) and PFP legislator Ping Ting-kuo (馮定國) have both been outspoken in calling for primary-like popularity polls, since relative extremists do better than centerists in such polls. They're out to keep their seats. It is said that such exclusive polling would be bad news for the DPP's New Tide faction (新潮流). The DPP has said they will decide about just how much if at all the opinion surveys will exclude blue voters during the next central committee meeting.
  • Legislators are spending a good chunk of lunar new year holidays campaigning near their home districts.
  • PFP-KMT legislative tensions have been mounting, and there are lots of questions on how the two parties will coordinate things now that Ma Ying-jeou has resigned. Few PFP legislators willing to say if they will accept whatever agreement the Pan-blue alliance agrees on for nominating legislators. There's lots of mumbling -- the alliance might not last through the '07 elections, since all the PFP legislators want a chance of winning reelection.
  • Legislators are getting desperate now to boost their general polling results, so they're brainstorming new ideas. DPP legislator Lin Kuo-chin (林國慶) has put out a compilation of songs to try and swoon voters over, while KMT legislator Wu Yu-sheng (吳育昇) so he'll look clean come election time. Lwo Shih-hsiung (羅世雄) of Kaohsiung says he plans on spending more time this year back home, and less time up in Taipei.
  • CNA says legislators in the north and south are using different strategies. Northern legislators are focused on "asking questions during legislative sessions and on service" (問政與服務), while Southern legislators are emphasising service and identity issues. Taipei county legislator Wang Shui-hui (王淑慧) wants southerners to give calls up to Taipei to try and change the blue-heavy balance of politics in Taipei; she adds that "as long as the KMT is so arrogant, I'll fight back. 「只要國民黨還是那麼囂張,我一定還會反制」。" Chang Sho-wen (張碩文) of the competitive Yunlin province is starting a youth volunteer organization 「希望工程志工隊」to help the elderly and disadvantaged.
  • The TSU (I can't really pick a color for them-- they're changing too fast) is also fighting for its life. Thankfully, they have so few legislators all the current ones will be nominated again. They're also smart enough to be focusing on the at-large seats instead of district seats, but they're scared there isn't enough time to change the party's image for the next election. Mark Ho ( 何敏豪 ) , TSU caucus whip, has said the TSU plans to nominate someone in every district. That doesn't look good for cooperation with the DPP, however.
Source articles (in some cases, only opening paragraphs of full articles I read on the wires):

小綠抗大綠 台聯修路線提名遍地開花搶市場 (CNA)

綠委僧多粥少難協調 民調版本決定籌碼
(CNA)

泛藍參選爆炸橘營不退讓 國親聯盟有得喬
(CNA)

拼單一選區 綠委跑行程糗事多
(CNA)

出專輯趕公祭 立委絞盡腦汁突圍
(CNA)

拼單一選區 綠委春節拜年固樁不得閒
(CNA)


Feb 16, 2007

Legislative election '07 update

A few bits of news have been starting to leak out about how the Legislative '07 contest will really shape up.

As you probably know, Taiwan will be switching to a "single-member district, two vote" system where they will cast one vote for a local representative and one vote for a party. Out of the 113 seats in the new system, 73 will be directly elected, 6 are reserved for Aborigines and the remaining 34 will be distributed to parties based on that second vote.

As I've laid out before, There are 9 districts that will be almost certainly be highly competitive and a handful of others I see as "leaning" but could do a lot of things. Here's the latest news about those districts.

Miaoli Dist. 1 苗栗第一選區

Two local KMT heavyweights -- Miaoli Farmer's Association Chief Officer 苗栗縣農會總幹事 Li Yi-ting (李乙廷) and current Nanzhu Township Warden 南竹鎮長 Kang Shi-ru (康世儒) both expressed interest in running in this critical district. Given the need to keep the KMT cohesive and avoid any conflict in the party, they met up together at a local temple (八間廟宇) and came to an agreement after meeting local leaders and asking the gods who would be the better candidate. After asking the gods 8 times by pua̍h-pue (擲筊) or casting the devination apple halves, Li Yi-ting came out on top with a 6-2 result. Thanks for the political advice, gods!

Pingtung Dist. 2 屏東第二選區

Former Pingtung City mayor Wang Jin-shih (王進士 )has expressed his interest in running in Pingtung's second district (which includes Pingtung City). His announcement means he will have to go head to head with current KMT legislator Liao Wan-Ju (廖婉汝), who actually made the district plan for Pingtung with Nonpartisan Solidarity Union member Cai Hao (蔡豪), and Liao obviously tried to make herself a district sh ecould win in. Both will contend for a nomination.

The DPP is quite worried about either of these people, but probably more worried about the mayor. One current legislator, Cheng Tsao-Min (鄭朝明) has insisted he wants to run in Dist. 1 (which is a bit safer). And current Dist. 2 legislator Lin Yu-sheng (林育生) has not decided and will not say if he wants to run in the district.

At large seats 不分區

The KMT legislative caucus hopes that the party can quickly solve the problem of how to nominate their at large legislators. now that the Wang-Ma meeting has calmed down fears of a split in teh party, theyr'e asking people to solve this problem quickly.

The DPP will be holding a meeting on Feb. 27 to discuss their own nomination process among other problems.

Feb 15, 2007

The Great Compassion Mantra 大悲咒

This is the most widely read mantra in Taiwan (with the possible exception of the much shorter Tibetan mantra, Om mani padme hum 唵嘛呢叭咪吽 ॐ मणि पद्मे हूँ).

The entire mantra is read in Chinese characters using Mandarin (maybe Taiwanese or Hakka in a fwe cases), even though it makes *no sense* since the whole thing is just a transliteration of Sanskrit.

For example, the opening line part of the sutra reads:
南無.阿唎耶.婆盧羯帝.爍缽囉耶
na-mo wo-li-ye po-lu-jie-di-shuo-bo-la-ye

Which comes from sanskrit:
Nama āryāvalokite-śvarāya

Meaning "Adoration to the noble (ārya) Lord (īśvarā) who looks down (avalokite)." (皈依三寶皈依自在).

You can get more information in Chinese here, and more in English here.

Commentary on Bush's press conference

Complete transcript here. Only selected portions are discussed on this site.

Bush: In other words, these are people that will kill innocent men, women and children to achieve their objective, which is to discourage the Iraqi people, to foment sectarian violence - and to, frankly, discourage us from helping this government do its job.

Yesterday there was a suicide bomber. In other words, there's an active strategy to undermine the Maliki government and its Baghdad security plan. And our generals understand that. They know that they're all aimed at, frankly, causing people here in America to say it's not worth it. ...

But it reminds me of how important it is for us to help them succeed. If you think the violence is bad now, imagine what it would look like if we don't help them secure the city, the capital city of Baghdad.

Al Qaeda does not benefit from a US troop withdrawal, since they'd be hunted down by Iraqi militias and wiped out. They do much better as long as they're able point to attacking US troops and protecting Sunnis in Al Anbar from Shiite death squads.

Further, they are using many classical insurgent strategies to hit our nerve centers: infrastructure that produces wealth and sustains people (oil), making people unwilling to cooperate with the US, and hurting the financial sector overall. Just smart moves on their part that will make the government and US look worse and worse. This can be hard to stop under any circumstances.

And we don't seem to have made any progress yet in changing the status or strength of local militias. They're just laying low.

People want to live in peace. They want to grow up in a peaceful environment. And the decision I made is going to help the Iraqi government do that.

It hasn't yet. And I don't think it will.

I concluded that to step back from the fight in Baghdad would have disastrous consequences for our people in America. That's the conclusion I came to. That's the conclusion members of my staff came to. It's the conclusion that a lot in the military came to.

And the reason why I say disastrous consequences, the Iraqi government could collapse, chaos would spread. There would be vacuum. Into the vacuum would flow more extremists, more radicals, people who have stated intent to hurt our people.

I've already made my argument for this in my case for withdrawal.

What's different about this conflict than some others is that, if we fail there, the enemy will follow us here. I firmly believe that. And that's one of the main reasons why I made the decision I made.

You shouldn't, since almost all of the fighting elements in Iraq are fighting on sectarian lines or are criminal gangs trying to make money. Foreign fighters determined to attack the US are a minority. I also firmly believe that the longer we're in Iraq not providing security, the more Iraqis or other foreigners will want to follow us here.

A successful strategy obviously - a successful security strategy in Baghdad requires more than just military action. I mean, people have to see tangible results in their lives. I mean, they have to see something better.

They not only have to feel secure where they live, but they've got to see positive things taking place.

These things are true, but I do not yet see them working.

The other day, the Iraqi government passed a $41 billion budget; $10 billion of which is for reconstruction and capital investment.

We've already spent far more than this on construction and gotten precious little done. There are still major problems providing gasoline, cooking fuel, running water and electricity.

They're in the process of finalizing a law that will allow for the sharing of oil revenues among Iraq's peoples.

This is a major issue and I hope as much as anyone that this law can be agreed on. If it is, it may really help calm down Sunnis who fear getting cut out of the oil money.

Part of the strategy in Baghdad is to clear, and then to hold, and then to build. We've been pretty good about clearing in the past. We haven't been good about holding; we being the Iraqi and coalition forces.

Yeah. We don't control the vast majority of the country or the capital. That says a lot.

But also part of the strategy is to make sure that we build. So we're giving our commanders flexibility with reconstruction money that they have at their disposal.

I honestly wish Iraqis and the US the best in this effort. It will be hard. It's made extra hard because building is hard and requires time and security; blowing stuff up is relatively easy.

Later this week, the House of Representatives will vote on a resolution that opposes our new plan in Iraq before it has a chance to work. People are prejudging the outcome of this. They have every right to express their opinion, and it is a nonbinding resolution.

Soon, Congress is going to be able to vote on a peace of legislation that is binding, a bill providing emergency funding for our troops.

People are not opposing the plan "before it has a chance to work" for no reason. They see no rationale for a "more of the same" approach, especially when nobody in the administration can really say convincingly why it should work this time. They just say "because it has to."

At the six-party talks in Beijing, North Korea agreed to specific actions that will bring us closer to a Korea Peninsula that is free of nuclear weapons. ... This is a unique deal.

...This is good progress. It is a good first step. There's a lot of work to be done to make sure that the commitments made in this agreement become reality. But I believe it's an important step in the right direction.

Agreed. wonderful news. Seriously, congratulations on making the deal, even though you could have cut it two years ago and avoided seeing a nuclear North Korea. In any case, it's a good deal and a good first step, as you say.

Q: General Pace says that these bombs found in Iraq do not, by themselves, implicate Iran. What makes you so certain that the highest levels of Tehran's government is responsible?

BUSH: Yes...

Q: And how can you retaliate against Iran without risking a war?

BUSH: What we do know is that the Quds Force was instrumental in providing these deadly IEDs to networks inside of Iraq. We know that.

And we also know that the Quds Force is a part of the Iranian government. That's a known. What we don't know is whether or not the head leaders of Iran ordered the Quds Force to do what they did.

But here's my point: Either they knew or didn't know. And what matters is that they're there.

What's worse: that the government knew or that the government didn't know?

Hm. very weak reply to the question.

Now, let me step back on Iran itself. We have a comprehensive strategy to deal with Iraq. There's a variety of issues that we have with Iraq.

One, of course, is influence inside of Iraq.

Another is whether or not they end up with a nuclear weapon.

And I believe an Iran with a nuclear weapon would be very dangerous for world peace, and have worked with other nations of like mind.

I'd suggest the President explain why it makes sense that Iran's legitimate concerns are ignored, that all the current nuclear nations totally ignore the NPT, and that Iran can have no nuclear power technology. But Israeli can have weapons and nuclear power plants.

And it turns out there's a lot of countries in the world that agree with that assessment. After all, we did get a Chapter 7 resolution out of the United Nations that included E.U.-3, as well as Russia and China.

As I recall, the General Assembly of the UN has repeatedly supported Iran's right to develop peaceful nuclear technology.

Taiwan Quick Take: Editorial version

正名運動 Name Rectification

This is a losing issue for the KMT, and they aren't helping themselves by talking about it. They should let A-bian quietly do it, make very little protest. They certainly shouldn't talk about how they'd change the post office name back. This will hurt them.

國民黨黨內狀況 KMT Internal Situation

Ma
has moved too fast by announcing his candidacy; he's lost the moral high ground. When he called for A-bian to step down, even taking out an ad, he insisted the indictment was a very good reason for a resignation; by declaring his own candidacy in identical circumstances, he's gonna lose a lot with the non-hardcore voters.

He won't be able to find a peaceful apartment in Kaohsiung, so I'm not sure why he wants to move down there. He's going to end up with protesters all over him. It's not a face-saving plan.

Honorary KMT Chairman Lien Chan is flying out of the bat cave to try and hold the KMT together and prevent any sort of Wang/Ma related infighting. I would almost think Wang is best off sitting this fight out, begin a loyal party member, giving his warnings quietly on the inside, wait for Ma to loose in '08, grab power then and force the KMT to really become Taiwan-oriented.

還黨產於民 Return KMT party property to the people

The KMT has a lot of party property that they obtained either from the Japanese government, gave or sold to themselves from the Taiwan provincial government, confiscated from private citizens or used other special privileges to obtain. The more people know about it, and the fact that Lee Teng-hui, Lien Chan and Ma Ying-jeou have all made great effort to sell off as much of it as possible to their friends before a DPP legislative majority or referendum could force them to give it back to the government.

I hope people demand the KMT return all the cash they've made from selling these assets to the national coffers. It will never really replace the original resources including companies and land, but it's all people can hope for.

Feb 14, 2007

2003 Memo Says Iranian Leaders Backed Talks

2003 Memo Says Iranian Leaders Backed Talks (WaPo)

The Swiss ambassador to Iran informed U.S. officials in 2003 that an Iranian proposal for comprehensive talks with the United States had been reviewed and approved by Iran's supreme religious leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; then-President Mohammad Khatami; and then-Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, according to a copy of the cover letter to the Iranian document.

"I got the clear impression that there is a strong will of the regime to tackle the problem with the U.S. now and to try it with this initiative," Tim Guldimann, the ambassador, wrote in a cover letter that was faxed to the State Department on May 4, 2003. Guldimann attached a one-page Iranian document labeled "Roadmap" that listed U.S. and Iranian aims for potential negotiations, putting on the table such issues as an end to Iran's support for anti-Israeli militants, action against terrorist groups on Iranian soil and acceptance of Israel's right to exist.

The cover letter, which had not been previously disclosed, was provided by a source who felt its contents were mischaracterized by State Department officials. Switzerland serves as a diplomatic channel for communications between Tehran and Washington because the two countries broke off relations after the 1979 seizure of U.S. Embassy personnel.
Of course, this comes on the heels of another report out or Europe that they believe Iran can't be stopped from building a bomb if they want one.

What can we do now that is constructive? Holding out a North Korean model would be helpful; trying to take them up on the offer for comprehensive talks would be better. What can we do to avoid a conflict while meeting the concerns of both the US and Iran?

Thank god someone is fixing this mess

Bill Would Restore Detainees' Rights, Define 'Combatant' (WaPo)

A group of Senate Democrats introduced legislation yesterday that would restore habeas corpus rights to all detainees in U.S. custody and would narrowly define what it means to be an "enemy combatant" against the United States, a measure designed to challenge laws ushered in by the Republican-controlled Congress last year.

The bill, titled the "Restoring the Constitution Act of 2007," strikes at the core of the Military Commissions Act of 2006 by giving detainees access to U.S. courts. It was introduced by Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (Conn.), a candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination.

The bill would also prevent the executive branch from making blanket determinations about who is an enemy combatant and would restrict the president's authority to interpret when certain human rights standards apply to detainees. The legislation would limit the label "enemy combatant" to a person "who directly participates in hostilities in a zone of active combat against the United States" or who took part in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.
At least someone is paying attention to these things. Thank goodness we're going to get some of our fundamental rights restored. Unless Bush just attaches a signing statement expressing his intention to ignore the law.

Feb 13, 2007

Chinese Communists cracking down on corruption

涉貪污受處分 中共黨員高達10萬人 (RTI)

中共中央紀委副書記、秘書長幹以勝和監察部副部長屈萬祥,13日召開記者會指出,2006年間,因為紀律問題遭到處分的中國共產黨黨員,有97,260人。

這些受處分的黨員當中有78,980人是因為妨害社會管理秩序、失職瀆職、違反廉潔自律規定和財經紀律等受到處分,人數佔受黨紀處分人員的81.2%。

另外,涉嫌犯罪被移送司法機關依法處理的3,530人,佔受黨紀處分人員的3.6%,而有37,775人受到政紀處分。
China says 100,000 Communist Party members punished for corruption (IHT)
BEIJING: China said Tuesday that nearly 100,000 members of the Communist Party were punished for corruption last year as the government struggles to deal with a widespread problem that threatens its grip on power.

The cases include China's former top statistician Qiu Xiaohua, who is accused of taking bribes and having more than one wife.
Pretty impressive. I hope they keep it up. Hopefully they'll grab some more.

Ma Ying-jeou: Indicted, resigned as chairman, running for President

馬英九:請辭黨主席 宣布參選2008
 

(中央社記者林沂鋒台北十三日電)前台北市長馬英九特別費案偵結,馬英九遭起訴。他今天傍晚召開記者會,強調自己被起訴「痛心疾首」,雖尊重司法,但無法接受檢察官的指控,他宣布辭去國民黨主席一職,也會為自己清白奮戰到底,同時參選二00八總統。
Ma Ying-jeou indicted for corruption (Taipei Times)

6.10PM: Protesting his innocence, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) leader announced his resignation as party chairman today after being accused of embezzling NT$11 million (US$333,000). He said, however, that he would contest the 2008 presidential election. Full story at 10:30pm Taiwan time (1430GMT).

The main thing to wait for now is to let the KMT amend it's rules so Ma can run for them; to see what rival Wang Jin-pying will say; and to see the actual results of the coming trial.

If I were running a campaign against Ma, I would focus on KMT party property (黨產), His cross-strait policy/position/identity, and this corruption.

Update: The KMT central committee has declined Ma's resignation. That leaves him the chairman for now! Then didn't convince him to stay on, but they tried.

Update 2: The KMT has ammended party regulations (that Ma passed! ha!) which would have prevented him from running because of the corruption suit. Ma now has a free ride to at least try for the party primary.

Feb 12, 2007

228 vs. The Nanking Massacre

As February 28th approaches, it's time for Taiwan to talk about massacres. 2-28 marks the date where a police clashed with a woman selling cigarettes (illegally, since the KMT held a monopoly). A mob chased the police, they fired into the crowd while running for their lives, and an island-wide riot followed. That led to a crackdown that has been called the white terror or the martial law period, depending on who you ask.

This is always a bad time for the KMT's image, though the party chairman Ma Ying-jeou has gone to some effort to meet with victims and their families in recent years. As I recall, he even cried last year.

Coincidentally, recent revisions in various high school textbooks provide little or in one case no information on the Nanking Massacre. The Blues (in particular, two legislators who held a press conference today (洪秀柱、郭素春)) have seized on this to turn the tables: it's the Greens that want to forget history and white-wash the actions of brutual, militarist invaders.

Let's be honest about a couple things: old people are gonna get really worked up in Taiwan about 2-28 and young people hardly have any idea what happened. Same goes with the Nanking Massacre for mainlanders. They hate the Japanese for that, while Taiwanese don't really have negative feelings towards Japan on the whole.

And the fact that the KMT can't just face up to 2-28 for what it was makes things all the more depressing.

Name rectification (Ciàⁿ-miâⁿ)

As everyone is probably aware, the Taiwanese name rectification issue is simply covering most of the news lately. Everyone's having their say:

The DPP is obviously pleased with itself.
KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou has said the Taiwanese won't support it, it's a waste of time, asked them if they were going to try to change the national title too. He's also insisted the name changes are illegal and the KMT will prevent amending any law that would legitimize it.
PFP has said the would oppose a referendum on changing the country's name, which seems like they're looking ahead and maybe even trying to create a topic that has less public support because it is considered provocative to China.
TSU has announced that the company name changes are good, but that rectifying the country's name to Taiwan is even better; they've also openly solicited the public to help them think of a new party name in line with their theme of recreating the party's image as a left-center, Taiwan-centric but pragmatic party.

Election news from Pingtung

前屏東市長王進士 要參與國民黨內立委初選
Former Pingtung Mayor Wang Jin-shih announces his intention to participate in legislative elections


(中央社記者郭芷瑄屏東縣十二日電 ) 前屏東市長王進士今天確定要參與年底立委屏東第二選區國民黨內的初選,由於現任立委廖婉汝早就宣佈要在第二選區參選,使得二選區國民黨參選爆作,民進黨則視之為畏途。

屏東縣立委選區劃分,是採用國民黨立委廖婉汝和無黨聯盟立委蔡豪版本,二選區的範圍為屏東市、麟洛鄉和萬丹鄉,立委廖婉汝在選委會尚未確定選區時,就宣佈要在屏東市選區參選,在選區確定後,更強烈表達在屏東市選區參選的決心。

由於二選區被民進黨視為畏途,連住在萬丹鄉的現任立委鄭朝明都宣佈要在第一選區參選,寧願與縣議員蘇震清爭黨內提名,而原來預訂要在二選區選的現任立委林育生,在選區劃分後,對於要不要在二選區選猶豫不決,到目前還未鬆口。不過,民進黨內幹部表示,林育生應該會選,但到底要在那個選區選,可能要等林育生自己公佈。
In case you were wondering, it's rather bad news. In particular, Wang Jin-shih wants to run in the district that includes Pingtung city, where he has a pretty high approval rating. He's a formidable opponent that makes the DPP's job in winning 2/3 Pingtung seats pretty difficult. This seat is already set to be almost dead even. Nobody in the DPP wants to run against this guy.

I'm personally worried because it's my GF's district, and I'd like to see the Greens come out on top there.

Feb 10, 2007

Video showing reporters making up news

Here's a video that shows Taiwanese media both trying to make news more dramatic and overall being jerks. This is a result of the rediculous competition in the 24-hour cables news market -- there must be 8 or 9 stations.

Recent basketball fight

I saw this fight live not long ago.



Enjoy.

Ma Ying-jeou's special allowance fund investigation to be finished within a week

I think in all likelyhood charges will be brought. Ma is even changing his statements, insisting not that he didn't break the law, but that he didn't know that putting half of the presidential allowance fund in his bank account was illegal. He considered it private money, not public, like virtually every major around the country did before this case, and therefore did not intentionally break the law (and so shouldn't be charged with corruption).

He also said yesterday that if he's guilty, so is virtually every DPP political heavyweight (including A-bian) and almost everyone who's been a major or county magistrate for decades.

My take is that he's probably right in that he didn't think it was illegal. The KMT intentionally created a system with slush funds all over the place. But I still hope he is charged, and any guilty DPP leaders are also charged.


馬特別費案 最遲下週五偵結 (自由時報)

許添財、許陽明案 將採一致性偵查標準

〔記者楊國文、林慶川/台北報導〕國民黨主席馬英九任職台北市長八年的特別費風波,據了解,高檢署查黑中心檢察官侯寬仁將於下週偵結此案,最遲是下週五, 昨日已著手撰寫偵查書類;同時,台南地檢署偵辦台南市長許添財、前副市長許陽明特別費案,下週也將偵結,高檢署指出,兩案的偵查標準、法律用事認定等項將 會一致性。

馬改稱「私款說」 法界:應有高人指點

馬英九接受多家媒體訪問,強調自始就認定,特別費經過核銷程序進入個人帳戶的半數特別費是私款,並非公款,沒有犯意,高檢署表示,馬英九可以有自己主張和 辯解,檢方會依相關事證和法律規定認定,不會受到外界的影響。但有法界人士認為,馬此「私款說」,是一個可能為自己解套的方法,應有高人指點。

Rumors of Wang Jin-pyng; DPP debates primary system.

The United Daily News published a report suggesting KMT heavyweight and legislator Wang Jin-pyng was going to make a run for the 2008 KMT presidential nomination. This is especially interesting because it comes probably less than a week before the investigation into KMT chairman Ma Ying-jeou's use of his special allowance fund. If Ma is charged, he will step down from his position and all interest will immediately go to Wang again.

角逐2008?王金平:未來的路慎重評估

 

(中央社記者曹宇帆台北十日電)根據聯合報報導,立法院長王金平正積極動員,準備角逐中國國民黨總統初選。王金平今天表示,自己有什麼能力為國家效力會評估反省,未來方向與選擇很多,怎麼決定會慎重考慮。

不過王金平上午參加消防獎學金頒獎典禮時,面對記者追問聯合報的相關報導時,王金平指出,他現在必須思考國家處於什麼時期?能夠為國家做些什麼?國家需要為人民做什麼?與人民的期待。

他還說,會自我評估反省,看自己有沒有能力為國家做事情,他思考的是未來該走什麼路,未來方向很多,還沒有既定方向,會慎重評估。

Wang has said in response to the article that it's not exactly correct and that he needs to consider what sort of contribution he can make to teh country and what the people need right now. He's also said ne needs to do some self-reflection and self-criticism. In other words, he's confirming his interest in running.

My personal hope is that Wang is another Lee Teng-hui, in the fold to help the KMT lose or to make it walk a path toward localization. If Wang is nominated, expect to see a Presidential debate that's at least 70% in Taiwanese.

=========

On a related note:

DPP needs to rethink its primary poll system

Shen Fu-hsiung 沈富雄 / Tuesday, Feb 06, 2007, Page 8

A group of Democratic Progres-sive Party (DPP) legislators has proposed a mechanism to exclude pan-blue respondents from participating in the opinion polls that the party will use to choose candidates in its primaries. Anyone who did not vote for a DPP or Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) candidate in the last presidential, local or legislative election would be disqualified from taking part in the opinion poll.

This "blue exclusion clause" is being fiercely debated within the party. Some lawmakers are claiming that the proposal is tailor-made for certain legislators.

The proposal's author, Legislator Wang Shih-cheng (王世堅), isn't backing down. He has threatened to leave the party if it fails to adopt the proposal. ...

The proponents believe that pan-blue voters will distort the DPP's primaries and thus the DPP's nominations. The only case they have cited, however, is my own.

Wang Shih-cheng wants the poll limited to DPP legislators because he's not really interested in knowing how popular he is in the district or what his changes are of winning; he's rabidly anti-Ma and has a hardcore Green following, so he wants to capitalize on that to gaurentee his nomination. See, under the new single member district system, moderates will be favored and extremists marginalized, so Wang is trying to ensure he can at least make it through the primary process and gaurentee a nomination.

I hope Wang Shih-cheng fails and that Wang Jin-pyng succeeds.

Buddhist nuns in Taiwan

英國學者盛讚台灣佛教與比丘尼地位提升

(中央社記者郭傳信新德里十日專電)英國牛津大學佛學教授龔布瑞契表示,佛教在全球的地位已不如以往,尤其在許多國家受到政治和其他宗教的打壓,但在台灣卻地位顯著提升,許多寺廟的住持都由比丘尼擔當,而比丘尼的人數也超越比丘,對宣揚佛教教義的貢獻也極大,是當今世上少見的例子。
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覺門法師在大會報告說,台灣佛教創立的大專院校有八所,醫院有三所,圖書社有二十八所,高居各宗教之首,而台灣佛教徒人口約五百四十八萬六千人,也是台灣信徒人口最多的宗教,比丘與比丘尼的人口共約三萬人,其中約百分之七十五是比丘尼,也是全世界比丘尼佔人口比例最多的國家。
An Oxford scholar, who's name is transliterated as 龔布瑞契, is said expressed that throughout the world, the status of Buddhism has not been doing particularly well lately, even being pressured by political and other religions; but that in Taiwan the status has obviously increased, and many temples are now being run by nuns. The number of nuns also is the majority of the Buddhist clergy here (aka, Nuns outnumber Monks), and this is a major contribution to the Buddhism and not seen in other parts of the world.

The scholar said at a conference that (besides other things), Nuns make up 75% of those who have left the life of the householder (monks and nuns), a world record.

I can attest to seeing a lot more nuns than monks in Taiwan. This is especially true given that most of the monks I see are Tibetans or other overseas visitors coming here to live in a Taiwanese temple for a while.

Taiwan changing state-run company names; Blues vow to block

So far, 4 companies have made some name changes: China Petroleum Company (CPC) (中國石油) will be renamed CPC Corp, Taiwan (台灣中油); China Shipbuilding Corp (CSBC) is being renamed to CSBC Corp, Taiwan (台灣國際造船); and the board of the Chunghua Post Co 中華郵政 has approved changing its name to Taiwan Post Co (台灣郵政). Stamps have already been updated. EDIT This just in: on its English website, the CENTRAL BANK OF CHINA: Repubic of China(Taiwan) has been renamed to Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan).

Blues vow to block the name, saying it was illegal to change the name without first amending related legislation,a nd that they would not vote for (prevent the passage of) any such legislation. They are right; if they block the name change, the company cannot legally change the name. The KMT has also promised it will slash the budget of the Post if it tries to implement the name changes.

The Blues have also deemed new textbooks as unconstitutional. They insist the constitution refers specifically to Taiwan and China as being one nation, the
Republic of China. I don't believe that is quite the case.

美不支持正名 台聯盼美尊重 橘營疑講講而已


(中央社記者曹宇帆台北十日電)美國國務院表達不支持台灣推動國營企業正名的立場,立法院台聯黨團與橘營今天各表看法,台聯黨團表示,任何主權獨立國家都可更改所屬國營事業名稱,美方應給予尊重;親民黨團則根據過去案例,質疑最後淪為「講講而已」。

美國國務院表達對台灣政府推動國營企業正名的關切(Concern),國務院發言人麥考馬克指出,美國的政策是「不支持(do not support)」台灣行政部門採取任何試圖片面改變台灣現狀或朝向獨立的舉動,其中包括,美國不支持台灣當局更改所屬單位的名稱。
Taiwan vows to keep changing state-run company names despite US objections

TAIPEI (AP) Taiwan said Saturday it will stand by a campaign to remove references to rival China from Taiwanese state-run companies' names despite objections from Washington, the island's main ally.
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U.S. State Department spokesman Sean McCormack made Washington's disapproval clear at a regular briefing Friday in Washington.

``The United States does not ... support changes in terminology for entities administrated by Taiwan authorities,'' he said.

McCormack reiterated the policy of U.S. President George W. Bush's administration to not support Taiwan independence or steps to change the island's current status. The United States, like most countries, does not officially recognize Taiwan's government.
The AP article is very bad. As you can tell just by looking at the English in the Chinese article, the United States neither objected to nor disapproved of Taiwan's policy, merely declined to express support.

My personal feelings on all these name corrections is that many are overdue, they have all been practical (China Airlines hasn't changed it's name yet), and lower cost options seem to be favored. For example, while the DPP chairman expressed that local leaders should rename all the roads throughout Taiwan (in every city) named after Chiang Kai-shek, no local leader from any party has taken the bait on an expensive and basically unnecessary issue.

I mean, I look forward to the day when those street names really are changed, but you need a plan that works, such as doing so when people are already renewing ID cards and household registrations, or when you've slowly made all the signs to keep costs low, and when you've given lots of warning for businesses to change cards and whatnot.

Feb 3, 2007

Analysis on new districts 選區劃分分析

Not looking good. I'm predicting a legislative election result of 30 Green seats, 43 Blue seats (plus or minus 4) for the directly elected seats.

I've done some analysis on the key 21 districts using the results from the last legislative election. By rearranging the freely available data from the last legislative election into an OpenOffice spreadsheet using the new district shapes (maps here), I was able to see how elections were likely to go in each of those key areas.

Here were my results after I ran the numbers on those districts in the center of the country considered competitive.

SeatsGreenBlue
Safe2428
Leaning

Miao Li 1st district10
Taichung County03
Taichung City02
Pingtung County11
Changhua County04
New Total2638

That means I can only see about 9 seats really up in the air. Here the are:
  • Kaohsiung City (1)
  • Taipei County (1)
  • Taichung City Dist. 3 (1)
  • Taichung County Dist. 4, 5 (2)
  • Yunlin County Dist 1, 2 (2)
  • Nantou County Dist 1, 2 (2)
And assuming those split about evenly, (maybe 4/5 in favor of Blues), I think we'd be looking at a 30 Green seats, 43 Blue seats situation for the 73 directly elected seats. That's not exactly good news, but there's still room.

Now one of my most pessimistic discoveries was the total edge the Blues had in Changhua county. In actuality, Changhua switches camps. In fact, we'd be getting very different results in all these areas if I were using the presidential election results. But legislative elections are more about local politics, relationships, and your candidate.

The Greens are going to need to peel away a dissatisfied legislator from the blue camp, put up an ideal local candidate or pull some other kind of magic to win it in the legislative contests in Changhua. But those 4 seats are really critical to them, and they could use at least two of them.

In any case, I'm not too optimistic.