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May 28, 2010


The KMT's domestic PR strategy to promote the ECFA is to say, "we need this or our country's economy will be devastated and marginalized."

However, that PR strategy puts the government in a very difficult negotiating position, as China can demand more favorable terms and postpone the signing, as seems to be happening now. The KMT is then left with the choice of caving in to Chinese demands that don't benefit Taiwan or contradicting their own insistence on the ECFA's necessity.


May 27, 2010

State of the party, revisited

Well, one year ago I wrote briefly on the DPP, and at that time I was most pessimistic about the state of the party. I think that many of those problems have been solved. The DPP seems to have moved past Chen Shui-bian, despite a handful of holdouts. The party has consolidated around Tsai Ing-wen's leadership, as well, and these two factors have helped to consolidate the party's message and messenger issues (disclaimer: I'm not watching the DPP Legislative Caucus' press conference clips).

Perhaps best yet, the DPP has re-remembered their strategy of yi difang baowei zhongyang (以地方包圍中央), or to siege the central government [KMT dominated] with local success. I like what I see!Of course, I'd like it even more if they were really going after offices at every level.

Obviously, it doesn't hurt that the party has won a few special elections and has high hopes for the municipalities.

Here's to hope!

May 26, 2010

6/3 baby!

I have to say I'm not paying a whole lot of attention to the political situation at the moment, as I'm waiting for the Referendum Committee to make its decision on the TSU/DPP's ECFA referendum initiative. That should be coming down on June 3rd. In the mean time, there's the ever exciting nominations for the upcoming mayoral elections, being well covered by those heroes of Taiwan blogging that work so hard every day.

You can bet I'll have something to say about the referendum committee's decision, though. I fully expect a rejection on one of the causes for rejection last time:

Instead, it asks the public to vote on something that has not yet happened — since the ECFA is not a concrete policy yet. Hence, we decided that the petition did not meet the criteria for a referendum as stipulated in the Referendum Act (公民投票法),” committee chairman Chao Yung-mau (趙永茂) said....