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Jan 31, 2007

Seats: 24 Green , 28 Blue, 21 in the air 選區劃分

立委選區劃分案 二十一縣市採中選會原案
21 Cities and Counties drawn according to CEC's original draft
 

(中央社記者李佳霏台北三十一日電)中央選舉委員會今晚將公告「第七屆立法委員直轄市縣市選舉區劃分變更案」,在全國二十五個縣市中,二十一個縣市採中選會規劃的原方案,高雄市、台北縣、桃園縣、屏東縣四個縣市則依院際協商結論,調整中選會規劃的方案,其中屏東縣變動幅度較大。
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對於八個有爭議的縣市選區劃分案,立法院長王金平及行政院長蘇貞昌今天在台北賓館持續協商,最後決定以抽籤決定採用何種版本,抽籤結果是台北市、苗栗縣、彰化縣及台中市採用中選會的原劃分案,高雄市照立法院協商意見、台北縣照台聯黨團提案、桃園縣照民進黨團提案、屏東縣照無盟親民黨國民黨及台聯案。
As far as the 8 districts that hadn't been agreed on, Wang Jin-ping (KMT) and Su Chen-chang (DPP) yesterday came to an agreement by drawing straws. The result was that Taipei city, Miaoli county, Chuanghua county, and Taichung city were drawn in accordance with the CEC's original draft. Kaohsiung City was drawn according to a legislative concensus, Taipei county along the TSU's draft bill, Taoyuan County according to the DPP's draft, and Pingtung County according to the draft brought by the Nonpartisan Union/PFP/KMT/TSU.

Here is a direct link (.doc) to the CEC's maps they had proposed, and here is the text (.doc) of the proposal.

ANALYSIS: 立委選區劃定 北更藍南更綠 (自由時報)

以二○○四年三月總統選舉、當年十二月立委選舉,兩次選舉的藍綠得票情形分析下屆七十三席區域立委之爭,出現一個有趣結果,在藍綠各自都整合之下,以總統 選舉來看,泛綠可以四十席比泛藍三十三席勝出,以立委選舉來看,泛藍則以四十二席比三十一席勝出,因此,綠營應以維持總統選舉的得票為戰略目標,藍營則全 力確保延續立委選舉的戰果。

民進黨正積極部署,是否採排藍民調、總統與立委選舉是否二合一,民進黨與台聯如何整合,都列為重大政治議程。國民黨為求二次政黨輪替,除與親民黨簽署國親聯盟,強化合作關係,企圖穩住泛藍國會過半席次外,也透過立院各種杯葛以及提案修法,期待透過立委選舉,直探二○○八。

If we use the 2004 presidential election as a basis for comparison, and assume the blues and greens both are consolidated, then the 73 directly elected seats would be split 40 Green - 33 Blue. If we use the last legislative election as a base, they'd be split 31 Green - 42 Blue. A second Libery Times article proposes a possible 37-34 split based on DPP/KMT votes. In other words, this plan creates a number of competitive seats.

Most northern areas will be safely blue; most southern areas safely green; and the main contention will be in the center of the country. My own analysis of the Liberty data shows 24 safe green seats and 28 safe blue seats.

The 21 most important and competitive districts of the 73 are:
  1. the 1st district of Miaoli County
  2. the 8 districts in Taichung County and City
  3. the 4 districts in Changhua County
  4. the 2 districts in Yunlin County
  5. the 2 districts in Nantou County
  6. 1 district in Taipei County, 1 in Kaohsiung City, and 2 in Pingtung county (not sure which districts though)
Here's a table for the "safe seats" that I pulled together using that Liberty data:
LocationGreenBlue
Taipei City17
Taipei County47
Keelung City01
Taoyuan County15
Hsinchu County01
Miaoli County01
Ilan County10
Hualien County01
Taitung County01
Lienchiang County01
Kinmen County01
Penghu County01
Chiayi City10
Chiayi County20
Tianan City20
Tainan County30
Kaohsiung City40
Kaohsiung County40
Pingtung County10
Total2428

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