Analysis on new districts 選區劃分分析

Not looking good. I'm predicting a legislative election result of 30 Green seats, 43 Blue seats (plus or minus 4) for the directly elected seats.

I've done some analysis on the key 21 districts using the results from the last legislative election. By rearranging the freely available data from the last legislative election into an OpenOffice spreadsheet using the new district shapes (maps here), I was able to see how elections were likely to go in each of those key areas.

Here were my results after I ran the numbers on those districts in the center of the country considered competitive.

Seats	Green	Blue
Safe	24	28
Leaning
Miao Li 1st district	1	0
Taichung County	0	3
Taichung City	0	2
Pingtung County	1	1
Changhua County	0	4
New Total	26	38

That means I can only see about 9 seats really up in the air. Here the are:

• Kaohsiung City (1)
• Taipei County (1)
• Taichung City Dist. 3 (1)
• Taichung County Dist. 4, 5 (2)
• Yunlin County Dist 1, 2 (2)
• Nantou County Dist 1, 2 (2)

And assuming those split about evenly, (maybe 4/5 in favor of Blues), I think we'd be looking at a 30 Green seats, 43 Blue seats situation for the 73 directly elected seats. That's not exactly good news, but there's still room.

Now one of my most pessimistic discoveries was the total edge the Blues had in Changhua county. In actuality, Changhua switches camps. In fact, we'd be getting very different results in all these areas if I were using the presidential election results. But legislative elections are more about local politics, relationships, and your candidate.

The Greens are going to need to peel away a dissatisfied legislator from the blue camp, put up an ideal local candidate or pull some other kind of magic to win it in the legislative contests in Changhua. But those 4 seats are really critical to them, and they could use at least two of them.

In any case, I'm not too optimistic.