Not looking good. I'm predicting a legislative election result of 30 Green seats, 43 Blue seats (plus or minus 4) for the directly elected seats.
I've done some analysis on the key 21 districts using the results from the last legislative election. By rearranging the freely available data from the last legislative election into an OpenOffice spreadsheet using the new district shapes (maps here), I was able to see how elections were likely to go in each of those key areas.
Here were my results after I ran the numbers on those districts in the center of the country considered competitive.
|Miao Li 1st district||1||0|
That means I can only see about 9 seats really up in the air. Here the are:
- Kaohsiung City (1)
- Taipei County (1)
- Taichung City Dist. 3 (1)
- Taichung County Dist. 4, 5 (2)
- Yunlin County Dist 1, 2 (2)
- Nantou County Dist 1, 2 (2)
Now one of my most pessimistic discoveries was the total edge the Blues had in Changhua county. In actuality, Changhua switches camps. In fact, we'd be getting very different results in all these areas if I were using the presidential election results. But legislative elections are more about local politics, relationships, and your candidate.
The Greens are going to need to peel away a dissatisfied legislator from the blue camp, put up an ideal local candidate or pull some other kind of magic to win it in the legislative contests in Changhua. But those 4 seats are really critical to them, and they could use at least two of them.
In any case, I'm not too optimistic.