Why Ma's election means surrender and no hope of independence

I know that the blue fans out there really hate when the greens say that Ma would sell out Taiwan. But I just I don't buy that Ma's a safe choice.

Ma wishes to end any chance of future Taiwanese independence within his first term, and if he is elected he would try to pull it off without any sort of referendum.

From the KMT's website. Translation mine.

基於前述理念，英九主張如下：
（一）基本立場──（１）以中華民國憲法與「九二共識」為基礎，在對等、尊嚴前提之下，以「不獨不武」為原則，促進兩岸和平與交流合作；（２）、依據連主席在北京與大陸方面達成的五點共同願景，開展兩岸關係；（３）、以本黨智庫為平台，推動黨對黨的協商合作。
（二）四項原則──（１）不改變現狀；（２）台灣優先；（３）和平共處；（４）對等協商。
（三）五項主張──（１）結束敵對狀態，簽署和平協議；（２）加強經貿交流，落實投資保障；（３）爭取國際空間，全面開放直航；（４）開放觀光、學歷認證，促進農業合作；（５）共同打擊犯罪，確保社會安寧。

Based on the above ideals, Ying-jeou's position is as follows:

(1) Fundamental position: (a) On the foundation of the Republic of China's constitution and the "92 consensus", and on the preconditions of equality and respect, with the principle of "no independence, no attack--" encourage peaceful cross-strait exchanges and cooperation; (b) use the five point consensus agreed on with the mainland by Chairman Lien in Beijing, develop cross-strait relations; (c) use this party's think tank as a platform, encourage party-to-party agreements and cooperation.

(2) Four principles: (a) Do not change the status quo; (b) Taiwan first; (c) Peaceful co-existence (d) equal agreements

(3) Five positions: (a) end the state of hostility with a peace agreement; (b) strengthen economic exchange and implementing protections on investment; (c) struggle for international space and fully open up cross-strait flights; (d) open up tourism, recognize degrees [from China], and encourage agricultural cooperation; work together to fight crime and protect social harmony.

Now. There are a lot of issues with this proposal of course; any agreement China enters into, no matter how Taiwan wants to spin it, will not be equal because China considers itself the only legal government and will never recognize the ROC (Ma only says "we'll find a way to work it out" at this point). There's also the complaint about total economic integration. In any case, I think the more important point is laid out in bold.

Ma Ying-jeou will sign a peace agreement with China that will no doubt include his own most fundamental principal for resuming talks, which is "no independence, no attack." This will formalize that Taiwan is a part of China and if Taiwan ever seeks to say otherwise, effectively agrees to a Chinese attack. It is, in essence, a surrender agreement that would also allow Taiwan to pretty much continue ruling itself for a while as long as it doesn't change the status quo.

Problem is, the current status quo is that Taiwan is effectively independence (though the KMT prefers to ignore that). The status quo after such an agreement is that Taiwan is a part of China. And changing that would authorize war.

In any case, that's how China and the rest of the world is going to take it. It will be game, set, and match. It will be a formal agreement that Taiwan is a part of China and permanently end any chance anyone would fight on Taiwan's behalf. It would, in the long run (and probably within a few short years), mean that "one China" thinking would permeate education in Taiwan. It would very likely mean a serious blow to the independence movement that would virtually guarantee Taiwan fight a war if it ever wanted to be independent.