DPP's prospects
Blogger Bent's latest post is on the DPP's prospects in the upcoming legislative and presidential elections, and he is not particularly optimistic. The topic is on every one's mind lately, including mine. I was talking to Feiren (who also posts at Taiwan Matters!) and we also concluded the DPP's chances do not look good for a few reasons:
+ The DPP campaign is stuck in 2004, with obsessive references to protecting Taiwan 守護台灣, excessive focus on the KMT's past and few imaginative slogans with little focus on the future.
+ Dissatisfaction with rising costs of living and stagnant wages.
+ A feeling that Ma Ying-jeou can't sell Taiwan out even if he tries because of referendums, meaning that even if I'm right and he does sign a peace agreement saying Taiwan will not become independent, people will feel they still have the referendum to protect them from unification. Ma may bring some benefits in cross-strait economic exchanges at no real cost.
+ Every one's just being sick and tired of A-bian.
+ The trouncing the DPP will suffer in the legislative election could work out in the KMT's favor, since everyone loves a winner.
2 comments:
the main factor against DPP winning the 321 presidential elections is that like most democratic countries, most middle ground voters would like to see a change of ruling party after 2 terms by that same party. peoples want a change, something different to look forward plus most believed a change of ruling party after 2 terms is good for democracy as a whole. this factor will work heavily against DPP more than anything in the presidental race.
In many ways it might be very bad for the DPP to win the presidency again without having the legislative. As you say, they need to get off the idea that appealing to the core vote will win them elections. That won't happen if they win the presidency - parties usually only learn from their mistakes in Opposition.
Parties that outstay their welcome in office often get thumped even harder later on and have to sit it out for longer.
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