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Dec 28, 2007

Legislative prediction: KMT 65-72, DPP 37-43, NPSU 5-6

I've decided to get a little bolder with the map predictions since there's more information out in the form of the TVBS polls, the UDN polls, the electronics market. I also made a better analysis of the individuals running for election. I now have made a prediction for all but one district (Taipei County-2) because I think there's enough info to at least hint at the winner.

Basically, I figure it'll break down like this:

In districts, I'm counting on two seats fro the NPSU in districted seats and figure they alone can break the 5% threshold necessary to get at large seats. I also think the KMT will gather between 44 and 46 seats to the DPP's 25-27.

For at large seats, I believe the KMT can pull in 16-20 seats while the DPP can only hope for 12-16. I also see at least 5 of the 6 aboriginal seats going to the KMT, and figure the NPSU could get one seat there if they're lucky. Don't think the DPP will win any of the aboriginal seats.

This brings the KMT damn close to their dream of a 2/3 majority (which would allow them to impeach or initiate a recall of the president), but they still don't quite reach it.

3 comments:

N.J said...

there's plenty of 3rd parties in many electoral districts, will they be the spoilers, splitting the votes of either blue/green? and give the unfancied side a win?
PFP seem to be missing from the at large list but they still have a few guys running under the party banner in the elections.

Joshua said...

I love Taiwan and hope one of these days the hole China become taiwandised. Free and Democratic. PALAVROSSAVRVS REX!

阿牛 said...

All polls indicate 3rd parties and renegade individuals will have virtually no impact in electoral districts; and there's not much indication they'll do any better in the at large seats either. I think the only one that can break the threshold is the NPSU, if only because people would say, "I like the sound of non-partisan."