Map update
I haven't made any physical updates to the map recently, since the legislative nominations remain unfinished and volatile. But I wanted to remind everyone that the DPP is screwed in this legislative election no matter how you cut it. Examine the numbers in those close districts and in the center of the country ... things aren't looking great.
4 comments:
I think it's an exaggeration to say the DPP are "screwed". I won't challenge the accuracy of your map, but it doesn't reflect current polling in those constituencies.
The DPP could do reasonably well without a massive cross-country swing, even if they don't win the election. I don't think it's easy to pre-judge things given the new voting system.
If the DPP has a problem it's that it's a two-term government. It's not usual to win a third term of office in a democracy unless everything is going really well and the Opposition is divided, useless, etc. It hasn't held the legislative but that doesn't make much of a difference in the public's eyes. You could say it's the KMT's "turn" and that letting them get back in would make it easier for the DPP to win both the legislative and executive at a later date.
I am waiting for more polling from the different districts. I will update the map as that comprehensive information comes out.
If the DPP do badly I think it will mostly be down to how they fought the election. I don't buy the "KMT has gerrymandered all the districts against the DPP" argument, though I'm not accusing you of pushing it. From what I've read the Blues didn't get to decide many more districts than the Greens did - certainly nowhere near enough to give them a majority they don't deserve.
By the way, be very careful of using local elections to predict national ones. The Conservatives in the UK have been cleaning up with those but not winning elections. People vote for different reasons.
As I said above, the DPP can win the election. The KMT might have an edge but not an impossible/improbable one to beat.
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