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Nov 9, 2007

Clearing up my statements on legislative election

Oh, don't get me wrong. The districts aren't gerrymandered at all. I really admired how well the CEC did when drawing the new districts, and it didn't particularly go the KMT's way -- the drawing of straws that decided difficult districts only went slightly in the KMT's favor.

One problem is that with a legislature cut in half, the relative importance of those small areas that all need at least 1 representitive (offshore islands, Taidong) goes up, and those areas are on the whole blue strongholds.

Another problem is that with the new larger, single member districts, party loyalty becomes a little more important and independents have less of a chance. Given this situation, and using the last legislative election numbers as an indication, the north is a strongly blue, the south is strongly green, and the battle will be in the center of the country.

In the center, about half of the seats seem likely to go blue while the other half are up in the air. Given this situation, if we assume those up in the air seats get split fairly evenly, things just don't look good for the DPP.

Again, let's wait for some more info. Once we actually have all the candidates decided, we can expect some sort of polling (though I'm not sure how comprehensive it will be), and then we can get a better idea of how these districts could go.


Raj said...

Thanks for the clarification.

Raj said...

By the way, when is the legislative yuan scheduled to be dissolved? I'm assuming that it's earlier than usual because of when the election is scheduled.