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Apr 24, 2009

Latest MAC tracking poll

The MAC has long done polling on people's preference for Taiwan's future. Here is the latest breakdown:

Maintain the 'status quo' forever: 27% (record high)
Maintain the ‘status quo’ and decide later: 35%
Maintain the ‘status quo’ and then become independent: 15.1%
Maintain the ‘status quo’ and then unify [with China]: 7.6%
Declare independence as soon as possible: 6.7%
Immediate unification with China: 1.2%
(No response: 7.4%)

Beijing is friendly to Taiwan's government: 35.3%
Unfriendly: 44.3%

Beijing is friendly to Taiwan's people: 39.7%
Unfriendly: 41.3%
We should read 'status quo' forever, 'status quo' and decide later, and 'status quo' then independence to really just be three different ways of saying, "I support maintaining de facto independence for at least the foreseeable future," that's a 77.1% super-duper majority consensus on the issue.

Throw in the "independence now" people, and I think it's fair to say 83.8% of people here support some form of Taiwanese independence.

Even if we remove the 35% of "decide later" people and conclude all of them will eventually swing into the unification column, 48.8% support at least de facto independence, making this the largest group of all and close to a majority all by itself.

I've said repeatedly that part of the reason this question remains the only divisive one in local politics is that everyone selff-defines the 'status quo.' I have a feeling that if the MAC were asking, they'd find a lot more people define the status quo as "de facto independence" than as "One China, divided by civil war" or some such definition. But as far as I am aware, nobody has ever done a poll on what Taiwanese actually consider the status quo to be. So I can't say for sure.

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