Wang to visit China as a bipartisan? Not running for president?

There are reports today that Wang Jin-pyng will be visiting China "in the capacity of the governmental leader most representative of Taiwanese public opinion" (台灣最高民意機關領導人的身分). There is talk that he would sign an understanding with the Chinese Communist Party as a "cross-partisan representative"(率跨黨派立委登陸簽署重大協議). Rumor has it the DPP government has even given him room to negotiate or sign an agreement (可能獲政府公權力授權).

The reports seem to be substantial, since Ma has said he'd be happy to see Wang succeed and KMT Vice Chairman Chiang Ping-kun (江丙坤) has warned not to expect a miracle overnight. Wang seems to be trying to stay quiet.

The PRC's Taiwan Affairs Council has also made a really uncharacteristically fast response, saying Wang would be welcomed to come "at the appropriate time, in the appropriate capacity." They said the visit would be to talk about opening up banking and shipping regulations between the areas, and reiterated China welcomes any politician who accepts the "92 concencus" and opposes Taiwanese independence."

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The second report today is that Wang Jin-pyng has said under the table he will not run in the KMT primary and will hold off on deciding to run as an independent until there's more information about Ma's special allowance fund case. Even Beijing is reporting that at People's Daily.

If this is true, I think it shows a real shrewdness; Wang's seeing he'll probably lose a battle within the KMT at this point, and if he "splits the party" he'll probably be left in the cold by the voters; so it seems he's gambling something will go wrong with Ma's case (he'll be guilty), and then an opportunity will present itself for Wang to run as an "independent" with the KMT's full support.

DPP opinion poll; voting from overseas

The DPP, when taking an opinion poll that will be weighed when nominating candidates for teh 2008 presidential election, has opted for the softest version of "excluding blues."

The whole idea with this is that party members are such a small percentage of DPP-leaning voters that an opinion poll is at least as relevant as a primary in choosing your candidates. At the same, the candidate is being picked to represent the DPP, so the party wants to ask DPP-leaning voters what they think rather than ask the public at large.

Past proposals included excluding anyone who had not voted for the DPP in 3 consecutive national elections -- which would exclude a great many moderates. Some green legislators are not pleased with the decision.
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Meanwhile, the KMT came up with an idea last week to make it possible for overseas citizens to vote remotely instead of coming back to Taiwan. They've been placing it at the top of the legislative agenda this week, probably because it'll be more popular than their CEC bill.

The obvious idea is to increase the number of businessmen in China who can vote without coming home (as seen from direct references to Taishang 台商 being treated as second class citizens by the DPP).

The KMT notes that according to their numbers, up to 15% of eligible voters cannot conveniently cast a ballot. They rhetorically ask the DPP "what's so scary about deepening democracy?"

I actually strongly support this sort of legislation in principal. Having to fly back to Taiwan to vote is quite absurd. But I think this sort of bill should do two additional things: (a) allow all citizens over 18 years of age to vote (currently the voting age is 21); and (b) take steps to ensure minimum voter fraud.

Now the problem with this bill is it proposes to allow people to vote electronically (using 通訊) from overseas, and if that won't be prone to massive abuse, I don't know what would be. The specifics are not normally discussed in media reports, so its hard to say much about that.

What can you do if you get so much fraud that you can't really tell the real votes from the fake ones? Or what if there is an inadequate paper trail?

In other words, the KMT should at least notice what problems are plaguing other electronic voting systems and consider that those occur *in country,* where the votes are easier to varify and voter fraud would be a bit harder.

Round 2 of DPP legislative registration

A friend of mine is getting the list of KMT legislative registrees for me, since it's not on the KMT website yet.

Here's what we got in round two this week from the DPP for registerees:

為期五天的第二階段提名選舉，已完成登記者為彰化縣第1選區中執委柯金德、第3選區立委林重謨、前國代林勝利、第4選區立委魏明谷、立委江昭儀；雲林縣第2選區雲林縣扁友會總會長簡光甫、立委林樹山等七人完成登記。

立委提名選舉日程如下：3/19至3/23第二階段立委提名選舉登記、5/6總統暨立委二合一黨員投票日、5/11至6/17立委提名選舉民調、6/20立委提名公告。

Not a big news day yet

For the most part, the news today is fake issues and rumor mongering.

There's lots of trash flying around about Chiu Yi planning to run as a legislator next term (even though the CEC said he doesn't qualify). The KMT is supporting him as well as his bid for a "special appeal."

To clarify, the CEC now seems to be unsure if Chiu Yi can run or not now!

Perhaps the KMT wants to control the CEC not only to slow down or block a referendum on the party assets issue, but also to make sure their guys can run for election even when not qualified and to ensure a more KMT-favorable outcome in the event of another close finish in 2008.

You can see a little of the video about 45 seconds into this clip of him on top of the truck which is ramming into a police barrier. It's not on this clip, but he also was leading the crowd in a countdown for one of those rams. Several police officers were injured in this riot which was insisting on (an illegal) recount of the votes after the KMT-PFP lost the 2004 election.

I hate to imagine what he would have done with any ballots he got his hands on if he had actually got through. Who knows how that would have affected any recount controversy.

Chiu Yi guilty, No arms for CEC, independent Wang? and more

Chiu Yi (邱毅) has lost his last appeal and has been sentenced for his role in an illegal demonstration in 2004. He has a 14 month sentence. The article says he is now facing the prison sentence and cannot run in the year end election. Horray! He also held a press conference to say A-bian had intervened to make sure he went to jail. DPP legislators have called for his right to leave the country to be restricted if there's any hint he's going to flee.

The KMT and DPP were both kicking around the idea of trading the arms bill for the CEC law. The KMT said they had to respect the PFP and hoped to talk to them more about it; the DPP said they liked the plan, but it was going to come down to the PFP's stance; and the PFP said forget it. For now, there's no chance it'll pass.

The KMT has a lot more people who want to run for the legislature (at least 152) than the DPP has (97 or so at this point?). That's good from the perspective of getting some defections over to the green side. In any case, the KMT says it will deal with each election area at a different time between April and June.

The DPP presidential candidate debate is this weekend.

Wang Jin-pyng refused to rule out running for president as an independent "during the negotiation phase." That seems to be a surprisingly strong statement from him. And he is not registered as a candidate for the 2007 election yet, a strong indication he's not hedging his bets.

The KMT wants Lien Chan, Wang Jin-pyng and Ma Ying-jeou to all show up for their big parade on 3/31. The parade, prompted by the name changes related to Chiang Kai-shek, is sure to be a doozy. The official them for the parade is: "Defend the Republic of China, oppose hatred, oppose corruption, oppose Taiwanese Independence; [We] want work, want clean government, and want peace" (捍衛中華民國，反仇恨、反貪污、反台獨；要工作、要清廉、要和平). They will also hold an event to remember the 30th anniversary of Chiang Kai-shek's death on April 5th.

Another clash in the Legislative Yuan is assured today. The KMT will again try to pass their bill that would assign seats to the Central Election Commission based on the proportional seats the party has in the legislature, and the DPP has vowed to prevent it again. The KMT move is probably meant to prevent any referendum the KMT sees as "scary" from being held at the same time as the legislative or presidential election.

The KMT stressed the lack of faith people have in the legal system and their hope it will be saved. This lack of faith ios a result of recent corruption charges, arrests, prosecutions and rumors. I am glad to be in an era where the guys can actually get charged, arrested and put in jail for these crimes. Of course, not many of them are getting caught. Guys in the business world tell me things are just as corrupt now as under the KMT, but you don't even know if your bribe will be effective (unlike before).

Some lawyers were at a civic conference talking about the KMT ill-gotten assets issue, and lawyer Chen Da-cheng (陳達成) suggested that private citizens who's property was taken should apply to have that property returned. The lawyer cited articles 71 and 72 of civic law, which he said should be basis enough to get the courts to return the property.

President has said he will, at least temporarily, not moderate negotiations over a future DPP presidential candidate. He did not rule out further negotiations at a later date.

Slow news day

The only thing making a big splash was the statement, made on Formosa TV last night by VP Annette Lu, that Premier Su Chen-chang threatened to resign if Chen didn't at the height of the Shih Ming-te business. She further said if it hadn't been for herself and Yu Shyi-kun, Chen probably would have resigned.

Su laughed it off, asking how resigning would have helped him; Yu said Lu's statement was "very close to the reality;" Frank Hsieh seemed to have been smart enough not to say anything.

Chen Shui-bian came out himself and said Su had made no such threat, but has offered a resignation on four occasions.

So other than this molehill that looked like a mountain from a distance, not much.

Chu Mei-feng (璩美鳳)

I thought I had heard the last of her when I burned a copy of the Scoop CD for a professor in 2001. I was wrong.

(My favorite part about burning that CD was the professor's comment the next day. "I watched it with my wife last night. The guy didn't seem to know what he was doing, but she obviously did.")

National Language Development Law

I'm rather upset about the way the press is talking about the new law on languages the cabinet wants to pass. Like this UDN article. (GOD that's annoying. And how can he complain about the law not setting a clear 'official language' [inherently political] while saying language should not be a political topic?)

The law does nothing to reduce or discourage the use of Mandarin. It merely says the government may no longer compel people to use any one language over another and that all languages are considered equal.

This takes away the official position of Mandarin as the "national language" and recognizes the diversity of Taiwan and its language scene. It's sort of a formal correction for the absurd idea that a language which was native to 15% of the population should be the only "official" language in Taiwan, while Taiwanese, spoken by 70-80% (not to mention Hakka or aboriginal languages) was oppressed.

You can read an official explanation of the new draft law here (.doc format).

This law has been under consideration and draft since 2002. I personally was volunteering for Professor Robert Cheng, head of the Ministry of Education's Mandarin Promotion Council, and translated a draft of the law at that time. At that time, it was called the language equality draft law. It is now the national language development draft law (國家語言發展法草案).

The most important thing the law does is elevate all languages used by the people in Taiwan (本國族群或地方使用之自然語言及手語) to the status of "national language" 國家語言. Mandarin will be called Huayu 華語 in official documents. What is often called is officially Southern Min (not just "Taiwanese," since calling one "Taiwanese" woudl be as useless as calling on the "national language," right? You don't see China Times mentioning that).

The bill says people have the right to use their language unimpeded, both in their private lives and in broadcasts. It says the government should help promote the languages (which they are doing for Hakka and aboriginal languages a lot lately). It says the government should establish prizes to promote use and make sure students can study their language in school. The Ministry of Education said today that the language kids understand will be used in class, but made no move to back away from Mandarin as the defacto class language. And if some places start having more classroom discussion in another language, what's the harm?

While the bill says people have a right to receive government services in their language, it makes no demand that the government publish documents in anything but Mandarin, but also does not limit the government's options to mandarin only. From a practical perspective, it would be some time before anything would be published in another script.

So in any case, screw the reports of "getting rid of Mandarin" and all the other sort of nonsense coming from the blue camp. The Liberty Times had a more friendly report (of course). And Taipei Times did a good job too.

Election roundup (03/20)

DPP legislator Gao Jyh-peng (高志鵬) pointed out that Chiang Kai-shek was on a list of 100 tyrants in an English book titled Tyrants. He sarcastically asked why the KMT was defending this sort of guy. The KMT's response was that you couldn't do a "one-sided" discussion of history. True, but I don't think they're helping themselves ...

Ma Ying-jeou has made a few campaign promises as well today. First: an end to the "三不定," which I'd translate as the "Three unstables" of political instability, governmental instability and policy instability. (政治不安定、政府不穩定及政策不確定). He also promised to focus on the economy, not politics. His final promise was to loosen restrictions for mainland investment.

More reports today (and no denials) that A-bian figures a primary is the way to decide the next candidate. Frank Hsieh and Su both said they prefer a negotiated solution though.

The KMT killed the name change from Chunghwa Post to Taiwan Post again today.

Predictably, a good number of those going for at large legislative seats are not thrilled about the decision to decide their fate by primary. But the primary is as democratic of a mechanism as a party can have.

While Wang Jin-pyng has said a Second Republic of China constitution was "one path that could be considered," he denied supporting it. The KMT and blue press went balastic on that plan today and yesterday.

I find the recent complaints that Su Chen-chang is using progess he's made as Premier just as a campaign tool to be an unintentional admission: the Executive Yuan and Su are out there doing something, in sharp contrast to the legislature!

More of this pua̍h-pue business

Green political commentator Wang Ben-hu (汪笨湖) has suggested that Kaohsiung County-2 be decided by pua̍h-pue (擲筊) or casting the devination apple halves. The legislative nominees were not pleased with the suggestion.

This is already the third time I've heard this proposal this election season. The first time was when Miaoli Farmer's Association Chief Officer 苗栗縣農會總幹事 Li Yi-ting (李乙廷) and current Nanzhu Township Warden 南竹鎮長 Kang Shi-ru (康世儒) actually used this method to decide which of them would run in Miaoli-1. Li Yi-ting won.

The second time was when Chen Shui-bian, when at a temple with Annette Lu, reportedly suggested at a temple one day that she pua̍h-pue herself to determine if she would run. This is the third time.

Does anyone else find this really odd??? Even somewhat disturbing in a democracy?

Election roundup (03/19)

In general:

1. Central Election Commission chair Masa Chang (aka Chang Cheng-hsiung (張政雄)) has said that a social concensus would be required before holding the legislative and presidential elections at the same time.
2. DPP legislator Chen Chin-de (陳金德) caused an uproar today by promoting a draft constitution for a "Second Republic of the ROC" that had been written by the TSU affiliated Taiwan Thinktank. It called for a cabinet system (which he agrees would create a very weak presidency) and would write into the constitution the so called "two countries" formula (兩國論), which Taida professor Chen Ming-tong (陳明通) described as "reality." For its part, the KMT decided to fly off the handle, saying they would oppose the draft and saying Chen was seeking "de jure independence" and was trying to spark a war, rhetoric that is typical from the Chinese Communist Party but not the KMT.
   

On the DPP side:

1. A group of DPP party members led by DPP Central Committee member Huang Ching-lin (黃慶林) have made a proposal to strengthen the primary and weaken the opinion poll for choosing legislators. They proposed changing party rules to allow the At large nominees to be chosen entirely by primary and for the presidental and districted legislative nominees to be weighted 50% primary, 50% opinion poll. (中央社)
2. There are conflicting reports on how the DPP whether A-bian has thrown his weight behind a primary or if he will continue to try to negotiate the DPP nominee among the interested parties.
   

On the KMT side:

1. Wang supporters said yesterday that a possible "third force" within the party, namely either Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄), Wu Den-Yih (吳敦義) or some combination, may sort of overwhelm the current thinking of a Wang/Ma or Ma/Wang ticket. Why? Because Ma may not be able to run legally for the KMT because of this special affairs fund. Note: I think Wang here is not so much promoting either Wu as a candidate so much as he wants to remind everyone of Ma's legal vulnerability and what that might mean to the chances of winning in '08.
2. Legislator Lee Sen-zong (李顯榮) has already stated that he's angry with the KMT for not negotiating with Wu Yu-sheng (吳育昇) about who will run in Taipei County, Dist. 1 He's threatening to leave and run on the DPP ticket! The KMT has played down the effects of any such run and also emphasized that they have not given up on negotiating this thing through. (中央社) Note: This is the most obvious of several cracks that should appear within both parties over the nomination process and could lead to defectors.
3. Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) registered to run for party chairman and indicated she wanted a debate. Candidate Wu Poh-hsiung did not indicate much interest but did not rule the idea out either. (RTI)
4. As people registered to run in the primary for legislative seats within the KMT, Former Pingtung mayor Wang Chin-shih (王進士) announced his candidacy for Pingtung District 2. Note: I have a particular interest in this district. Unlike last week, I'll wait until all the registration is finished this week before posting the results (with this obvious exception).
   

Stray dogs and cats

In Taipei city, with a land area of 271.79 sq. miles, there are an estimated 12,500 stray cats and 4,000 stray dogs. That comes to 14.7 stray dogs and almost 46 stray cats per square mile.

:(

The good news is the government is using the Trap-Neuter-Release (TNR) program to try and control the population without overcrowding shelters or leaving "territory gaps" that new strays would quickly fill.

DPP pushes party assets referendum

This should more or less destroy any chance of the KMT trading something to pass the arms bill.

The DPP began collecting signatures at the Chiayi train station today in its effort to get a referendum on the KMT party assets going for the next election. Even a TSU city councilor in Chiayi came to sign when he heard about the news. Expect to hear complaints on the evening news about this from the KMT. They will go something to the effect of "the DPP just wants to kill off the KMT, they're stirring ethnic hatred and they're too corrupt that bringing this up is shameless. Besides, the KMT is already taking care of this!"

If you're a legal Taiwanese voter who wants to sign the petition, go to this site. I also strongly recommend viewing the facts at this site and, just for laughs, the KMT's position.

公投討黨產 蔡同榮發起連署 (民視)

民進黨代理主席蔡同榮，今天在嘉義人來人往的火車站，發起追討國民黨黨產的公投連署，民眾熱情響應，還有人一口氣拿了一大疊，要回家給親朋好友一起簽名連署。大聲公加上現場工作人員的說明，讓這個小小的連署站，人潮沒停過。不只是火車站裡人來人往的旅客坐下來簽名，還有人聽到消息，騎車來要連署單。就連同屬綠營的台聯市議員也前來參予連署表達支持。而這個連署的最終目的，是要在七月底前達到一百萬人連署的目標。這個星期假日只是個開始，民眾的熱情反應也讓蔡同榮有信心，讓公投討國民黨黨產的議題，持續在各地發酵。

DPP at large registrees

Here are candidates that registered to run in at large seats and gender (half of the nominees must be female according to law):

薛凌 F
沈富雄 M
翁金珠 F
王幸男 M
許榮淑 F
羅文嘉 M
田秋堇 F
余政道 M
張秀珍 F
邱議瑩 F
游盈隆 M
蔡煌瑯 M
陳茂男 M
高志鵬 M
洪奇昌 M
周清玉 F
周平德 M
涂醒哲 M
范巽綠 F
張富美 F

77 DPP registrees in districts

I decided instead of uselessly listing all the DPP registration for legislative seats this year, I'd put the information in a table format and post it here. There are a max of 4 candidates registered in any one district now, 22 districts that weren't open for registration, and a handful of districts that had been open to registration but still attract anybody.

The data for this table came from the DPP website.

County/city District # registered DPP Candidates District area 台北市 第01選區 4 陳正德(前台北市議員) 高建智(立委) 林濁水(前立委) 鄭運鵬(立委) 北投區、士林區－13里 第02選區 4 王世堅(立委) 藍美津(立委) 蕭美琴(立委) 黃至君 大同區、士林區－38里 第03選區 1 郭正亮(立委) 中山區、松山區－20里 第04選區 1 徐國勇(立委) 內湖區、南港區 第05選區 1 段宜康(前立委) 萬華區、中正區－21里 高雄市 第02選區 2 管碧玲(立委) 劉俊雄(前立委) 鼓山區、鹽埕區、旗津區、三民區－42里 第03選區 2 林進興(立委) 李昆澤(立委) 三民區－45里 第04選區 2 黃昭輝(立委) 姚文智(前新聞局長) 前金區、新興區、苓雅區、前鎮區－8里 第05選區 1 郭玟成(立委) 小港區、前鎮區－51里 台北縣 第02選區 2 黃劍輝(立委) 林淑芬(立委) 五股鄉、蘆洲市、 三重市－16里 第03選區 1 陳景峻(立委) 三重市－103里 第04選區 2 曹來旺(立委) 吳秉叡(立委) 新莊市－75里 第06選區 1 王淑慧(立委) 板橋市(縣民大道、 湳仔溝以西)－65里 第07選區 2 莊碩漢(立委) 黃俊哲(縣議員) 板橋市(縣民大道、 湳仔溝以東)－61里 第08選區 1 趙永清(立委) 中和市－76里 第10選區 2 尤清(立委) 李文忠(前立委) 土城市、三峽鎮 第12選區 2 陳朝龍(立委) 沈發惠(立委) 金山鄉、萬里鄉、汐止市、平溪鄉、瑞芳鎮、雙溪鄉、貢寮鄉 宜蘭縣 單一選區 2 陳歐珀(前宜蘭縣黨部主委) 陳金德(立委) 宜蘭市、羅東鎮、蘇澳鎮、頭城鎮、礁溪鄉、壯圍鄉、員山鄉、冬山鄉、五結鄉、三星鄉、大同鄉、南澳鄉 桃園縣 第01選區 2 陳志謀(縣議員) 李鎮楠(立委) 蘆竹鄉、龜山鄉、 桃園市－10里

第02選區 2 彭紹瑾(立委) 郭榮宗(立委) 大園鄉、觀音鄉、新屋鄉、楊梅鎮 苗栗縣 第01選區 1 杜文卿(立委 竹南鎮、造橋鄉、後龍鎮、西湖鄉、通霄鎮、銅鑼鄉、苑裡鎮、三義鄉 台中縣 第01選區 1 蔡其昌(立委) 大甲鎮、大安鄉、外埔鄉、清水鎮、梧棲鎮 第03選區 2 謝欣霓(立委) 簡肇棟(前立委) 太平市、 大里市－25里 第05選區 3 吳富貴(立委) 郭俊銘(立委) 許水彬(縣議員) 后里鄉、神岡鄉、大雅鄉、潭子鄉 南投縣 第02選區 2 湯火聖(立委) 林耘生(立委) 南投市、名間鄉、集集鎮、竹山鎮、鹿谷鄉、水里鄉、信義鄉 雲林縣 第01選區 1 陳憲中(立委 麥寮鄉、臺西鄉、東勢鄉、褒忠鄉、土庫鎮、虎尾鎮、四湖鄉、元長鄉、口湖鄉、水林鄉、北港鎮 嘉義縣 第01選區 2 林國慶(立委) 蔡啟芳(立委) 六腳鄉、東石鄉、朴子市、太保市、布袋鎮、義竹鄉、鹿草鄉、水上鄉 第02選區 1 張花冠(立委) 溪口鄉、大林鎮、梅山鄉、新港鄉、民雄鄉、竹崎鄉、中埔鄉、番路鄉、大埔鄉、阿里山鄉 台南縣 第01選區 2 鄭國忠(立委) 葉宜津(立委) 後壁鄉、白河鎮、北門鄉、學甲鎮、鹽水鎮、新營市、柳營鄉、東山鄉、將軍鄉、下營鄉、六甲鄉、官田鄉 第02選區 2 侯水盛(立委) 黃偉哲(立委) 七股鄉、佳里鎮、麻豆鎮、善化鎮、大內鄉、玉井鄉、楠西鄉、西港鄉、安定鄉、新市鄉、山上鄉、新化鎮、左鎮鄉、南化鄉 第03選區 1 李俊毅(立委) 永康市、仁德鄉、歸仁鄉、關廟鄉、龍崎鄉 高雄縣 第01選區 1 顏文章(立委) 三民鄉、桃源鄉、甲仙鄉、內門鄉、杉林鄉、六龜鄉、阿蓮鄉、田寮鄉、旗山鎮、美濃鎮、茂林鄉、燕巢鄉、大社鄉、大樹鄉 第02選區 2 余政憲(前內政部長) 李清福(前高雄縣黨部主委) 茄萣鄉、湖內鄉、路竹鄉、永安鄉、岡山鎮、彌陀鄉、梓官鄉、橋頭鄉 第03選區 2 陳啟昱(立委) 徐慶煌(前中執委) 仁武鄉、鳥松鄉、大寮鄉、林園鄉 第04選區 2 陳慧文(縣議員) 林岱樺(立委) 鳳山市 屏東縣 第01選區 2 鄭朝明(立委) 蘇震清(縣議員) 里港鄉、高樹鄉、三地門鄉、霧臺鄉、九如鄉、鹽埔鄉、長治鄉、內埔鄉、瑪家鄉、泰武鄉、竹田鄉、萬巒鄉、潮州鎮 第02選區 1 李世斌(縣議員) 屏東市、麟洛鄉、萬丹鄉 第03選區 1 潘孟安(立委) 新園鄉、崁頂鄉、南州鄉、新埤鄉、來義鄉、東港鎮、林邊鄉、佳冬鄉、枋寮鄉、春日鄉、枋山鄉、獅子鄉、牡丹鄉、車城鄉、滿州鄉、恆春鎮、琉球鄉