We'll see how receptive the Beijing authorities would be to that. I'm sure they'll be happy to let them come in a controlled environment. And if it's one of relative academic freedom, expect the Chinese students to really try to set the tone of discussions.
Michael Turton was first on the scene. The impeccable reporting of Loa Iok-sin, a personal friend, lays out some of the more interesting details:
Former vice premier Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) took nearly 60 percent of the votes in the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairperson race yesterday to become the party's first chairwoman. About 129,000 of the party’s 250,000 eligible members voted in yesterday’s election, making the turnout 51.7 percent. Tsai triumphed with 73,892 votes, or 57.1 percent, while former senior presidential adviser, 82-year-old Koo Kwang-ming (辜寬敏), received 48,882 votes, or 37.8 percent.Sorry for the extended quotation, but most of that information seems important.
Legislator Chai Trong-rong (蔡同榮), who dropped out of the race to throw his support behind Koo, received 6,530 votes as his withdrawal was anounced too late for his name to be erases from the ballots.
Tsai topped Koo in most constituencies except for Chiayi City, Penghu, Hualien, Chuanghua and with overseas party members....
She said that under her leadership the DPP would work more closely with civic groups and grassroots organizations.
“The DPP will protect Taiwan’s sovereignty, its democracy and insist on social justice,” she said. “I’m confident that we can restore the public’s faith in the party and the DPP will rise again....”
In addition to electing the party chairperson, DPP members also voted for directors of the party’s local chapters.
Several former legislators who were defeated in January’s legislative elections won local chapter directorships, including Taipei County director Wu Ping-jui (吳秉叡), Miaoli County director Tu Wen-ching (杜文卿), Taichung County’s Kuo Chun-ming (郭俊銘), Chunghua County’s Charles Chiang (江昭儀) and Tainan County’s Cheng Kuo-chung (鄭國忠).
Legislator Chen Chi-yu (陳啟昱) was elected Kaohsiung County chapter director.
Despite saying his shadow cabinet will not be run by or answer to the DPP, Frank Hsieh is also saying it will aim at helping restore trust in the DPP. God knows what will really happen. But I've got my fingers crossed -- generally speaking, this is a step in the right direction.
It's an interesting rhetorical flourish from him coming days before his inauguration, and is being instantly spun by media -- but they may just suck at English too much to notice the nuance involved.
Here are segments of original AP exclusive interview. Ma's phrasing, as quoted: "Ma says 'it is difficult to see the chance for unification talk[s?] even in our lifetimes' because Taiwanese are opposed to China's communist system."
AP summarizes this in it's lead paragraph as: " Taiwan's new leader Ma Ying-jeou says that unification with longtime rival China is unlikely to happen 'in our lifetimes.'"
According to the first link I Ma's office, when explaining the quotation, re-worded it further to this: "We may not see [unification] my life time."
All of which, despite the different wording, mean more or less the same thing. The problem is the translation being used by the Taiwanese media. Check out some of these headlines, many of which mis-translate "unlikely to happen" or "it is difficult to see a chance for" as "impossible," almost making it sound like "over my dead body." Oddly, TVBS's headline is as accurate as the Liberty Times:
馬辦：有生之年不會統一 就是說明台海現狀 《中廣新聞網》
(Note: graphic to the right does not include latest numbers; Chinese version here.)
The Liberty Times takes a look at the polls from the Mainland Affairs Council, which have followed attitudes toward cross-strait relations for many years now (you can see the survey questions here).
They start by noting the numbers in May 2000, when Chen took office. At that time, 4.1 percent supported "unification ASAP," while "status quo now, unification later" was the position of 19.1% of people. That's almost a quarter of the Taiwanese people supporting unification as an objective, sonoer or later.
Eight years later, as Ma Ying-jeou prepares to take the torch, "unification ASAP" is supported by 1.7 percent while "status quo now, unification later" gets 10.5 percent support.
Meanwhile, support for "status quo now, independence later" has risen 5 points from 12% to 17.1%, and support for immediate unification has remained essentially unchanged (went from 5 to 6 percent).
Meanwhile the number of people calling for "status quo now, decide later" hasn't budged, despite fluctuations, going from 42.3 to 43.5 percent in the same eight year period; supporters of "status quo forever" has risen slightly from 16.6 to 20 percent.
So, to sum up: Status quoers make up 63.5 percent of the population, a little more than the 58.9% eight years ago. Independence advocates have also gained 6 points of support, and advocates have lost 12.
Frankly, although I would call it progress, I'm not sure it's at all surprising or a big deal. I certainly don't think it's as important as the Liberty Times does, since I'd say this mostly reflects a generational change that has reduced support for unification. But the fact of the matter is, the status quo is, unsurprisingly, still the king.
And Ma's inauguration two days later. I've just got my fingers crossed that Tsai can pull it off. My anniversary happens to be May 20th as well, so don't expect me to post then -- it isn't a good day to watch such depressing news as the inauguration proceedings.
After Koo Kuang-ming and Chai Trong-rong's attack on Tsai for her supposed lack of commitment to the DPP's core principles, Tsai is hitting back, noting that she has never relented on the principal of Taiwanese sovereignty; that virtually all members of the party have basically the same degree of commitment to those principals; that the question at hand is who has the ability to actually safeguard those principals and help the party; and finally that the DPP has to choose between opening it's doors and getting wider support, or keeping the doors shut and engaging in cyclical infighting.
Update: you'll find an especially insightful comment from Feiren below.
Those recently past first; pending later.
PASSED
PENDING
| 97/05/09 | 內政部警政署組織條例修正草案 | 行政院 | 07屆01期10次 | 1720政11262 | 0233-0246 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 土地稅法增訂第二十八條之四條文草案 | 余政道 ;郭玟成 | 07屆01期10次 | 285委8102 | 0229-0232 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 立法院各委員會組織法第九條條文修正草案 | 翁金珠 ;田秋堇;蘇震清 | 07屆01期10次 | 23委8103 | 0225 ; 0227-0228 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 立法院組織法第五條條文修正草案 | 翁金珠 ;田秋堇;蘇震清 | 07屆01期10次 | 23委8103 | 0225-0226 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 反併吞和平法草案 | 張花冠 | 07屆01期10次 | 1554委7841 | 0219-0224 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 勞工保險條例部分條文修正草案 | 賴清德 ;林淑芬;劉盛良 | 07屆01期10次 | 468委8101 | 0193-0218 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 勞工保險條例第七十二條條文修正草案 | 民進黨黨團;柯建銘;賴清德 ;葉宜津 | 07屆01期10次 | 468委8104 | 0191-0192 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 傳染病防治法第二十六條條文修正草案 | 鄭汝芬;徐少萍;侯彩鳳;楊瓊瓔;林滄敏;張嘉郡 ;陳福海;黃昭順 | 07屆01期10次 | 1156委8105 | 0187-0190 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 傳染病防治法增訂第二十六條之一條文草案 | 涂醒哲;賴清德 ;楊瓊瓔 | 07屆01期10次 | 1156委8100 | 0183-0186 | |||
| 97/05/09 | 中央行政機關組織基準法第二條條文修正草案 | 張顯耀;吳育昇 ;吳清池;潘維剛;江玲君 | 07屆01期10次 | 1767委8099 | 0181-0182 |
Turns out Koo Kuang-ming's withdrawal from the race was a head fake (he never said he'd quit, just that he'd "suspend his campaign activities"). Here's the deal according to the Taipei Times:
So it's the younger Tsai Ing-wen vs. the elder Koo.Chai Trong-rong (蔡同榮) dropped out of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) chairmanship race yesterday, saying his decision had met the expectations of independence supporters.
A close aide to Chai, who wished to remain anonymous, told the Taipei Times that Chai thought it would be for the best if he and former senior presidential adviser Koo Kwang-ming (辜寬敏) could reach a deal on a single candidate because they are both die-hard independence activists.
However, with Koo showing no sign of backing down, Chai had no choice but to withdraw, the aide said. ...
Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文), the other candidate for the DPP’s top job, called for party factions to cooperate yesterday.
She said all sides should work together to help the party select candidates for next year’s mayoral and county comissioners elections.
Tsai said the party can no longer feel sorry for itself following its recent losses. She pledged to reform the party’s structure if elected, and take advantage of the party’s experience over the past eight years to make it more “combative.”
Legislature decided to pass this law. It will obviously just turn into another propaganda opportunity.
Like he needs it. It's not even US$20 a month, so I find it a really odd move. VP will be taking a pay cut.
Just to show what a progressive old man he is, Koo Kwan-min asked yesterday if the DPP could really give it's future over to an unmarried woman (Tsai Ing-wen).
Here's the latest on the legal bribe being handed over to township and borough chiefs by the new legislature (hint: it'll cost entirely too much).
Probably most significant today: China's foreign ministry has finally commented on Ma Ying-jeou's "One China, respective interpretations" very indirectly. When asked about Taiwan's interest in increasing its international space, the ministry said that after discussions start, this can be a topic at negotiations, but China firmly opposes any effort to create "two Chinas" or "one China, one Taiwan" in the international sphere.
This is not a direct reply to the 'one China, two interpretations' clause, but it does show China's predictable unwillingness to recognize the Republic of China on Taiwan as a legitimate government.
I think the DPP is going to need to establish early and often that it's stance is firmly set on "One side, one country." Even though it's hard to say how that position will be received next election in four years time, it's a fundamental truth and needs to be the basis of Taiwan's dealings with China.
It would be nice to see more guerrilla advertising/propagranda around. I think spray-painted slogans of "一邊一國" and "歡迎中國人來中華民國" or the like might be good ideas. Of course, that's unlikely to happen.
China Review News, a -fringe and seemingly Chinese-connected news source (I'm not sure they have much of a presence off-line), reports that Ma Ying-jeou made statements supporting Hu Jin-tao's 16 character vision for cross-strait relations at a private banquet on Saturday night (reported on here).
People's Daily is carrying a piece on the report; mainstream Taiwanese media is ignoring it.
Update; Eric Pickett notes in comments that the Taipei Times is reporting the same thing, in part based on a CNA story.
“Hu’s remarks will serve as an important guide in turning a new page in the development of cross-strait relations,” Ma said during a conversation with a group of retired military commanders at an evening gathering, according to a news release issued by Ma’s campaign office around 1am yesterday.
I can't find the article for the life of me, but last weekend I saw a recent DPP onion poll published in the Liberty Times (either Apr. 26 or 27) that, among other things, showed that the largest voter block the DPP bled away in 2008 was 40-49 year old men.
Interesting, because I would have expected younger people or women to be the most likely to flee the DPP this time around.
TAIPEI (XFN-ASIA) - Ma Ying-jeou, who will be sworn in as Taiwan's president on May 20, said weekend charter flights between Taiwan and China and first direct arrival in July of mainland tourists to the island are just awaiting a sign-off by top political leaders on both sides, the Commercial Times reported. He was quoted as saying that private industry representatives had been entrusted to talk with Chinese officials about the issues immediately after his victory in the presidential election in March. Documents are now being readied for signing by the two sides, he said. The quasi-official Straits Exchange Foundation will be empowered to seal the matter after Ma takes office, according to the report.
