Referendum updates

A few issues have been raised about recent referendum issues, and I'd like to discuss them here.

First, the PFP and KMT have sued several government officials (including the premier) for breaking the referendum law and illegally using government resources to support the DPP's referendum campaign. The accusations seem well enough founded to me, considering that the DPP and government are using identical use of logos and slogan for their particular bids. That's the more damning part.

On the other hand, the government's bid to join the UN is long standing and picked up particular steam when A-bian sent his letter to the UN secretary general. The logos and slogans say nothing about a referendum.

I suppose on the legal front it will be come a question of the chicken or the egg.

Are government promotions to join the UN [under any name?] long standing policy already supported by both the KMT and DPP -- and the DPP merely co-opted the slogans and logos to push its referendum campaign?

Or do the slogans and logos amount to carefully coordinated and illegal support for the DPP's referendum only under the guise of a general push for Taiwan to join the UN [under any name]?

I think the waters are a bit murky here, and I certainly wish the government and party did a better job of keeping these campaigns seperate. We'll see how that turns out.

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The second big "issue" lately is the CEC's decision to break with precedent by handing people both their presidential and referendum ballots at once. Before, people would need to wait in two lines to get each of their ballots.

This obviously infuriated the pan-blue camp, whose campaign to defeat any DPP referendums depends on making it as hard as possible for people to vote on the issue and minimizing turn out -- they obviously have no faith in their ability to win in a true battle for public opinion.

KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou dismissed the referendum topic again, noting that "the people" wish the DPP would stop pushing "fake issues" and start serving them properly.

The DPP just noted that this will be cheaper and that there's nothing wrong with making it easier to vote.

small problem for PFP-KMT election cooperation

The two parties were unable to come to an agreement on how to handle three four different districts. At this time, the PFP insists it will run in the elections until the very end. Two PFP legislators even declared total war.

The districts are Taichung City-2, Taichung County-3, Taoyuan County-3, and Kaohsiung County-1. The first three are safely blue while the third is rather green.

Interestingly, the KMT will also not be nominating anyone in Yunlin County-2 because they have two candidates that both insist on running. The KMT just decided to let them both run and nominate neither.

You can always take another look at the legislative map if you want. I won't be updating the names in it again until nominations are complete, though.

New Fisher/Farmer Association amendments

The Taipei Times was the only one to report on this today among the English papers. Apparently there is a law that was even more important than the CEC bill or the annual budget, so the KMT made it a top priority:

The pan-blue camp proposed amendments to the Farmers' Association Law (農會法) and Fishers' Association Law (漁會法), which both cleared the legislature yesterday.

The revised amendments canceled the three-term limits for secretary-generals with the associations and lowered requirements for them to renew their employment.

They also stipulated that association staff standing trial would not be relieved of their posts until a final verdict was delivered in their cases.

In other words, the amendments had a single purpose: to curry favor with the current secretary-generals, who obviously pull a lot of weight among the Farmers' Associations and Fishers' Associations in each county. The KMT's people hold 70% of these offices nation-wide!

The goal is to help those secretary-generals to wield significant long-term power, which makes them good friends and easier to buy off, and to help protect them from prosecution in the cases where they are involved in shady deals. And they often are: "In the 2001 farmers' association election, 555 cases of vote-buying, violence, and violation of the election laws, involving 951 people, were sent to the court, an increase of 157 cases (42 people) compared with the 1997 election."

The blues also managed to push through this:

Meanwhile, the pan-blue camp yesterday also triumphed in a vote on amending the Audit Law (審計法) which is aimed at clearing embezzlement allegations against KMT presidential candidate Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), to a second reading.

Ma was indicted on corruption charges after he allegedly wired half of his monthly special allowance fund directly into a personal account during his term as Taipei mayor from 1998 to last year.

The amendment says that all special allowances claimed by officials by the end of last year should be seen as "substantial subsidies" so decriminalizing the case.

Also yesterday, an amendment to the President and Vice President Election and Recall Law (總統副總統選舉罷免法), calling for the establishment of an absentee voting system and putting a ban on holding national elections and referendums on the same day was sent to second reading.

While amending the audit law probably won't be able to affect the course of Ma's case (after all, I don't think you can really do this stuff ex post facto), the progress of the recall law amendment is a demonstration their unadulterated of the party assets referendum being held on the same day as the presidential election because it might focus attention on the KMT's theft of massive amounts of private and public property. Holding referendums and elections together is, after all, quite normal, as well as cost-saving. It simply doesn't benefit the KMT in this case, and they fear referendums in general anyway.

I wouldn't say the KMT is getting desperate; I think they're playing every card they have to try and win in '08, though just how successful the moves will be remains to be seen.

Variables in PFP-KMT cooperation; DPP nominations

Just to your refresh your memory:

• The PFP demanded the KMT hand them seven seats for the next legislative election.
• The KMT offered four, then five seats including Kaohsiung City-1, Hualien, and Taipei County-2, -4 and -7. The PFP expressed satisfaction (there was some confusing statements about Taichung City-3).
  
• The PFP nominated people in twelve districts, saying they'd work with the KMT on any remaining conflicts.

So yesterday, the KMT central committee approved only four of those seats. They said they wanted to run another public opinion poll before finalizing Taipei County-2 and for Taichung City-3. The PFP seemed only marginally upset, and made weak calls for sincerity from the KMT and promised to protect PFP comrades. We'll see what happens in the end.

Meanwhile, DPP legislators decided not to run in five districts which had previously been contested by two potential DPP candidates. That means the DPP won't have to run opinion polls in these districts. All to have been a response to rather decisive margins in the party primary phase of the nominations (though in one case the difference was only five percent). Those districts and the remaining candiates are: Taipei County-7 (莊碩漢) and -12 (陳朝龍); Taoyuan County-2 (郭榮宗); Changhua County-3 (林重謨); and Tainan County-1 (葉宜津).

PFP nominees; map update

The PFP nominated 12 people yesterday, including a few that were outside their agreement with the KMT; they promise they will continue to negotiate with the KMT about those though, and some/most of the non-KMT approved nominees will probably end up not running.

I've also updated the Legislative Districts map to include the KMT and PFP nominees (I got my hands on the full list of KMT nominees).

Final word on PFP-KMT cooperation?

As Raj pointed out in the comments on the last post, the PFP did not support the bill (due to some prodding from James Soong) that would have prevented an indicted Ma from running. Of course, it would have been a good bill -- not because it would keep Ma out, but because why should officials indicted on corruption charges get to run for high office?

In exchange, the PFP continued to ask for 7 seats, saying they now expected the KMT to scratch their back. The KMT relented and gave up first four, and then five districts to the PFP: Taipei County-2, -4, and -7; Hualien; and, according to the Liberty Times, will not nominate in Kaohsiung County-1 either. In regards to Taichung City-3, the KMT and PFP seem to plan to allow an opinion poll to decide who will be nominated.

For their part, the PFP seems satisfied even though the concessions fall short of their original demands. It is not yet clear how many at large seats nominations will go to PFP nominees, but my guess is two-three.

False start, PFP, 5 yards, repeat first down

The People's First Party (PFP) decided to skip out on a committee meeting today in the legislature. As a result, the DPP was able to get both the KMT ill-gotten assets bill and an amendment to election law that would disqualify Ma Ying-jeou from running based on his having been charged for corruption.

Most attribute the PFP's decision to the KMT's unwillingness to avoid running in certain legislative races, particularly in Keelung, which would be about the only way the PFP had a chance of winning some seats next time around. It should be noted that the KMT has avoided nominating in a few (15) legislative seats, perhaps to leave themselves wiggle room for exactly this sort of situation.

The KMT's reaction was to say "even lovers have quarrels," and they hope things can be worked out with the PFP by Friday, when it will be placed on the legislative agenda (at least, that's what I think 院會的報告事項 means). In other words: the KMT is quaking in their boots.

The DPP predictably praised the PFP, saying this would help clean up politics.

For his part, Wang Jin-pyng said the KMT Central Standing Committee must handle this matter wisely, and that if the KMT were pushing this sort of legislation they could control the contents and the process. Not exactly saying "get rid of Ma," but his comments still hint that the KMT should remember Ma might not be able to run.

My guess? The PFP is just blowing some hot air, hoping to squeeze the KMT, but is probably unwilling to make a total break. Then again, if the KMT does not give the PFP some breathing space in certain races, the PFP could feel left for dead and may strike back with all they've got.