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Jan 31, 2010

Taiwan Disaster

Yuan Hongbing (袁紅冰), and exiled Chinese law professor, released his new book Taiwan Disaster last November. I learned about the book at the Taiwanese Heritage Society of Houston yesterday, which displayed an ad for the book. I decided to do a little research into the book, which posits that the Chinese Communist Party plans to complete a loose unification by 2012, including full economic integration, and to form its own proxy party in Taiwan for the 2016 elections.

One of the first things I discovered is that Yuan Hongbing is apparently as crazy as the Falun Gong's Epoch Times, since he apparently believes the Chinese intend on enslaving the entire human race, starting with Taiwan. That does not exactly inspire confidence in his other findings. But let's move on.

The second thing is that Yuan Hongbing claims to be quoting a few very primary sources. The Epoch Times reports the most important as being Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's June 2008 speech at the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the CCP. The document was apparently highly classified, and the leaking source was risking their life. The other three sources, listed in a Liberty Times article, are from that same meeting, and are three particular plans Yuan says the Central Committee passed: specifically, the Political Strategy for Resolving the Taiwan Problem, Plans for Potential Clashes with the Taiwanese Military, and Plans for Dealing with Taiwan Political Laws Post-Unification.

As Yuan outlines the plan, we see a relatively tight schedule that requires China do the following:

  1. Fully integrate Taiwan's economy into China's, turning China into the major export market of Taiwan (snatching 90% plus of exports, including agricultural ones). Given Taiwan's dependence on exports and importation of natural resources, China feels this will finish the goal of economic unification. [A-Gu: It's well-known that China is using the economic crisis and general trends to get Taiwan to agree to economic integration terms they'd otherwise deplore; the Economic Minister just admitted Taiwan will eventually have to remove all Chinese factory products from the current import ban list, and that Taiwan's just trying to get a more favorable time table for those openings. Further, China's not giving in on Taiwan's plans to block Chinese produce and labor for the ECFA.]

  2. China intends to be able to fully manipulate the Taiwan stock market through a number of well-paid Taiwan proxies, an expensive goal but one which would give the CCP huge leverage. [A-Gu: I would think so. I thought this would be an ideal investment for the CCP years ago, and I would certainly imagine they would pursue it. Why beat into submission what you can just buy?]

  3. Get KMT and DPP heaveyweights alike to profit from investments in China, starting with the KMT; threaten economic ruin for those that don't cooperate; weaken the DPP's social standing and turn the KMT into a partner of unification by 2012. [A-Gu: I think these are also rather obvious, long running strategies, but really still beyond Chinese control.]

  4. Perhaps most unbelievably, Yuan says the CPP has plans to create its own puppet "Democratic Socialist Party" in Taiwan after 2012. They intend for it to win the presidential election in 2016, and have lined up a number of high profile individuals from the media, religion, political circles, and business to back it. [A-Gu: I don't really see that happening. Too many things could go wrong to bother with this plan for it even to be seriously considered.]
It seems to me that Yuan's book reveals very little new information that is believable. We already knew China seeks economic unification as a basis for further political unification; that it openly seeks to make life easy for politically-connected investors; and that it tries to manipulate Taiwan's domestic politics when it can, but that it's given up using the ham-fist.

But forming a puppet party seems too difficult to be realistic to me, and I think the CCP would conclude the same thing. Likewise, a 2012 time table seems to be more optimistic than even most PLA hawks would hope for. I just don't believe Yuan can have authentic documents on these points, but if I'm wrong we'll know in just a few very short years.

On the other hand, I'd really like to read the book (Eslite is selling it, the LT article indicates). Has anyone read it, or do you have a more interesting review of the book handy?


Chris W said...

I've read it. The most striking value of this book, I think, is for the general public to understand that China is systematically planning to undermine Taiwan. For well-informed people who have costantly paid attention to cross-Strait affairs...yeah, it did not present too many SECRETS that you didn't know.

I've also read some comments about the book and they all questioned the authencity of Yuan's source.

One thing I know is that if Yuan's theory is all true, this theory is working pretty well and sticking to the CCP's plan. In other words, his theory makes sense.

And we'll have to wait and see whether the KMT, Taiwanese and especially Taiwanese businessmen make this theory come true eventually.

Anonymous said...

This sounds interesting and would love to read it. However, I'm in the UK and can't seem to find anywhere selling it. Would anyone like to post it on ebay?

Gilman Grundy said...

This appears to be from the same school of political journalism as the book “The Taiwan Crisis: China’s Plan to Annex Taiwan Without a Battle by 2012,”. This book formed the basis of a rather awful editorial in the TT a while back "quoting" Deng Xiao Ping talking about things which happened after he died, and had Hu Jin Tao basically slaying a whole load of sacred cows in a "secret" account of the 2008 speech seemingly known only to the author.

Let me put it simply: you must treat FLG sources, and much of the bizarre, paranoid stuff which comes out of people associated with them, with about the same level of seriousness as stuff coming from The People's Daily. No serious Chinese affairs scholar believes the accounts given of the 2008 meeting, not least because the quotes don't even sound like the people quoted.

FLG and the media they run (Epoch Daily, New Tang Dynasty TV) are, of course, still maintaining the fantasy that people are quitting the CCP en masse, when of course, no such thing has taken place. They also regularly carry stories about how people within China are more and more being won over by Li Hongzhi's "nine criticisms", when no-one there has ever heard of them. As such, they're already in the lying business, however much I might sympathise with people suffering oppression just because of their religious beliefs, I don't think we should blind ourselves to the way in which they've gone about fabricating stories.

And the CCP trying to launch a political party in TW? Pull the other one, it has bells on.

阿牛 said...

I have a great deal of distaste for FLG, though tremendous sympathy for their oppression.