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Jan 21, 2008

Latest opinion poll: 43% "undecided"

Let's take a quick look at the latest opinion poll from Apple Daily.

Ma 40.8%
Hsieh 16.2%
Undecided 43%

Now as we all know, green voters seem to have a tendency to either lie to or hang up on pollsters, and report themselves as undecided more often than blue voters. But in any case, thats' a pretty huge chunk of undecided voters, and it means the reality is that this election is going to be very hard to predict.

Hsieh is now starting to kick his presidential campaign into high gear now that all the focus is on him. Ma has alrady outlined the bulk of his policies over the last year or so. Hsieh, on the other hand, has been waiting for the right time. And he's built an impressive list over the last few days. Here's a quick look at some of Hsieh's proposed policy highlights.

+ Appointing a CEO as Premier who the KMT dominated legislature could work with. This may even happen at the end of January, when the cabinet will be resigning en masse. President Chen has expressed a willingness to give Hsieh's plan free reign even as his own term comes to an end. This is very positive news because it means we'll get a chance to see the plan in action before the election.

+ A promise and willingness to work with the reality of a KMT dominated legislature by making sure they like the premier (Hsieh said he'd even be willing to consider Ma Ying-jeou for the post) and not to push for further constitutional change without a consensus.

+ A plan to lower the inheritance tax to 10 percent.

+ A campaign slogan: "Protecting Taiwan, saving [people's livelyhood] democracy, two-party rule and Taiwan's progress."

+ A general plan to loosen investment restrictions on Taiwanese capital in China and to initiate direct links.

We'll have to see how all this plays with the electorate.


Laurent Lin said...

IHT's "what's next for Taiwan" has great insight.

Raj said...

At last a campaign plan trumpeting better links with China. If only this had been followed in the legislative campaign it might have been less of a disaster.

阿牛 said...

Unlikely that it would have been less of a disaster. I mean, half of the voting electorate did NOT vote the KMT (they split 38/12 between the DPP and small parties). That's hardly a rousing confirmation in the KMT's ability or a huge condemnation of the DPP. And issues like concrete steps for China ties were not a legislative election issue at all for either party.

Laurent, thanks for the link.

Unknown said...

Taiwan South votes will be decisive in the 322 presidental elections. think Ah Bian 2004 win was all due to a 30% margin win in Tainan area.
DPP highest record of votes was in 2004 when they gathered 6 million+ votes in the presidental race. the party had never got more than 4 million votes in any elections apart from that. The 6M+ figures have to return if DPP is to win.
Ah Bian was the incumbent in 2004 and thus it's no surprise he manage to get a record high votes for DPP. it's be very interesting to see if Hsieh can get the 6M votes figures.