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Dec 13, 2006

A poll

Check out the results of this poll:

自己是台灣人 I am Taiwanese自己是中國人 I am Chinese自己是台灣人也是中國人 I am Taiwanese and Chinese無答 No Answer
「獨立」對台灣前途比較好 Independence is better for Taiwan's future「統一」比較好 Unification is better「維持現狀」 Maintain the status quo無答 No answer
「若現狀無法維持時,會選擇獨立或是統一?」 If there were no way to keep the status quo, would you pick independence or unification?
選擇獨立 Independence選擇統一 Unification維持現狀 Maintain Status-quo無答 No answer
「擔不擔心台灣對中國大陸高度集中投資的現象,會對台灣的經濟發展有不利影響?」 Are you worried about Taiwan's high level of investment in the mainalnd will result in an unfavorable effect on Taiwan's economy?
「非常擔心」 Very worried「有點擔心」 A little worried「不太擔心」Not too worried「一點也不擔心」 Not even a little worried無答 No answer

The survey also showed solid support for bringing in Chinese tourists, that 60% want the Chinese to talk to Taiwan's government and not just the KMT, and 60% think that Chinese actions toward Taiwan are more ill-intentioned than good-intentioned.

Now there are three things I want to point out here:

First, the number favoring the status quo is staggeringly low. How does this compare to previous years? If we look at this MAC poll, we find a little different break down because of a different question, so perhaps the 22% drop is a result of the different phrasing.

Second, notice that about 20% of people don't want to answer questions on either independence/unification question. Notice that between the first independence question (now) and the second (later), of the 24% of status quo-ers 6% still want a status quo (they must not have understood the question)), but the rest split almost evenly in each direction, for independence or unification (about 9% each way). The secretive respondants remains 20% in both cases. So which way do they lean? It seems that those people who prefer not to answer poll questions are more likely to lean green lately, but at worst it shold be about half and half. This makes the independence leaners a majority, and should give the KMT pause. Maybe they should change their name to Taiwan Kuo-min-tang after all and let the Taiwan-oriented faction have some prominence or time in the spotlight, even if they won't want to give up the party center.

Last, this shows that the country is headed toward a solid Taiwanese identity. I'm going to make an assumption that the 9.6% of people who don't answer question 1 at all fall into the "Chinese" or "Taiwanese/Chinese" catagory but don't want to say it. Let's say they split evenly. That leaves about 20% that say they're Chinese, 20% that says they're both, and 60% that just say their Taiwanese. Which is about the number that feel negatively about Chinese investment and the Chinese goverment's intentions. So I figure you're at 60% solid Taiwanese identity at this point.

One question seemed poorly designed. You could have as easly asked if a higher degree of investment in the mainland would be favorable to Taiwanese comanies and got a different answer.

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