Do you remember the days when Taiwan's current VP was declaring Taiwan is an independent and sovereign country? Or when President Ma was saying that Taiwan was the same as the ROC? As long ago as that now seems, I do.
Those were the days just before the 2008 presidential election, when making such common sense statements was a necessary stretch for the KMT, meant to attract some more votes and dispel fears, all while more the party quietly held onto "one China (two interpretations)" and called for a One China market.
Now we are in different times, where Taiwan and China are "two regions" of the same country, and where Taiwan again takes the impossible position that the PRC does not exist, despite some rhetorical flair from our presidential office trying to spin things just a little more positively. The Third United Front, this time aimed at crushing formal Taiwanese Independence, is unfolding according to KMT-CCP plans.
What will ultimately happen? Who knows. Some things are certain: increased economic ties between Taiwan and China, as well as the precedents set by KMT-CCP dialogue that sidesteps the government, will increase Taiwan's economic dependence on China and may well alter the conditions under which election slogans and policies are developed. The DPP may be forced to alter its rhetorical approach while reinforcing its support of Taiwan's right to self-determination and holdin gout for the ultimate goal of establishing an internationally recognized country separate from the PRC.
Meanwhile, the KMT is unlikely to find a way to move beyond its current rhetorical emphasis on economics and pragmatism; how can they sell to the people any of the political concessions that the CCP will surely demand? If economics matters don't improve as the current leadership predicts, the KMT base and legislators will likely sour on the China-centric ideology and policy of the current administration. Internationally, we can expect Japanese and US support and interest in Taiwan to further decrease. The future does not exactly look bright, but this is not over.
It's the end game that matters. Unification is not just around the corner. The variables are too many. Despite the structural advantages the KMT enjoys at all election levels, and despite its media advantage (and pressure on public media), and despite the apparently politically motivated prosecution of DPP figures, the green camp is not crippled. Factionalism and debate is alive in well in both the KMT and the opposition. Green leaning papers and stations are financially healthy and functional, enjoying wide circulation and viewership. The public still has the right to initiate referenda and at the end of the day, Taiwan's future is still very much in the hands of the people, however the KMT tries to influence or control the likely direction Taiwan will go. And this power of referenda, however terribly flawed the current law is, is the most reassuring thing of all.
But aimless hope is not what we need. We need the DPP to develop an election plan that involves winning at all levels, not just the presidency. We need NGOs and the opposition to continue the fight against the rollback in human rights the KMT is initiating, and we need them to get some results, as difficult as that will be. We need a revised referendum law. We need targeted attacks on absurd KMT rhetoric and continued rejection of any "one China" framework. We need the green camp to develop a sales pitch that works and an alternative to KMT rule that is again attractive to the people.
DPP incompetence is potentially just as capable of damaging continued independence as a KMT sellout. We need measures to curb both of these dangers. Will we get them?
Of that, I am less hopeful.
