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Jan 16, 2012

What next?

So the DPP loss is not unexpected, though I find it disappointing. But the big question now is how the KMT and CCP will conduct their relations over the next four years. No doubt, the closeness of this election and the uncertainty of a future KMT candidate's popularity -- combined with the fact that most non-political topics have already been discussed between the two sides -- will result in CCP intentions to "ratchet down" the '92 consensus through a written agreement and a possible peace agreement.

From Beijing's perspective, the best course of action is to lock Taiwan in to some sort of political framework before anyone else can win or lose. From the KMT's perspective, this is also beneficial, as it gives them the option of painting any non-'92 policy the DPP may advocate as "dangerous," as they've just done, but perhaps with a stronger effect. Indeed, both the KMT and CCP hope that they can ultimately force the DPP to adopt the '92 consensus and eventually the "inevitability" of political integration.

It seems nearly certain that the CCP and KMT will reach some sort of compromise on this front over the next term, leaving the DPP completely out of the discussions.

The question is, how effective will Beijing's pressure be, and how much are they willing to compromise? Similarly, to what extent can the KMT hold out from various pressures, and how much can they convince China it must accept a more Taiwanese-conscious oriented solution? 

As you may know, I've long speculated on what form any peace accord could take, and mostly drew blanks, but I'm starting to believe we may see something quite modest in terms of substance but full of the same pomp you'd expect from a full blown "peace agreement." It might yet be labeled a peace agreement, but I wouldn't be surprised if it avoided such language in favor of merely declaring the basis of cross-strait discussion to be the '92 consensus, and finding a way to define that term. 

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

It will be rather interesting, concerning the PRC doesn't recognize the existence of a Republic of China...

I guess, the big success for the KMT will be that they will get some kind of official recognition of some kind of existence for the ROC... or maybe a kind of Post-ROC Post-PRC new National Name. I don't expect that either the CCP nor the KMT is dumb enough to threaten their "productive cooperation" by entering the others political market in some way or the other.

And let's not forget, in the meantime military and economic dynamics will have sealed Taiwan's fate unless the PRC goes the way of the Soviety Union, of course.

happy times...

STOP Ma said...

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I truly can't believe we're still talking about the so-called "1992 Consensus".

An agreement (that never was) to disagree.

And this is the basis for a "peace treaty"?!

You're damn tootin' China and the KMT are going to make it politically impossible now for the DPP to salvage 1) the status quo and 2) real democracy for Taiwan.

It's over, folks. There are no more chances.

I hope the Taiwanese savour their short-term economic gain while they ride that trojan horse to China.
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Anonymous said...

I see absolutely no reason for Beijing to pressure Taiwan for a political agreement in the near future.

Why should it? The reasons for reunification will only become MORE compelling in 10-20 years, not less so... regardless of which party is in charge in Taipei.