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Sep 16, 2011

Thoughts on Taiwan Wikileaks

One of the more interesting revelations that came out of the Wikileaks news was the split within Chinese leadership about how to react to Ma Ying-jeou's stances. Obviously, they have chosen to move ahead, but I think it's worth noting the significant reservations within China circles about Ma's policies -- ie, fears Ma's a "two China's" kind of guy, and distrust of the "no unification" marker in Ma's "three no's" policy.

Obviously, this is the best the PRC can hope for though, and they've recognized that and moved forward with negotiations. But it sheds a light on the difficulty the PRC will have internally reacting to a DPP victory.  It seems they're already at their "edge" of acceptance with Ma.

Should Tsai win, will ignoring her be adequate? Will they  cancel existing agreements? Before, I was leaning on the "they'll just whine" side, but this is a little more food for thought.

4 comments:

STOP Ma said...

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Like the loony right-wing in America laughably calling Obama a "socialist", China will be no different with Tsai -- calling her "reckless" and "extreme". That's why Taiwan has to ignore this reaction and not hold back with the truth. The "Obama" way of playing nice is going to get you nowhere when you have an opponent as extreme as China and the KMT.
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Anonymous said...

The thing is, it seems to me more and more like the horse has left the barn a long time ago...

A DPP victory will result in 4 more years of angry CCP and KMTlers without being able to change the balance along the Taiwan straigth.

Unless a wonder happens (e.g. the PRC going the way of the Soviet Union) there is no way in hell president Tsai can significantly improve Taiwan's political situation.

STOP Ma said...

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Let's be clear here, Anonymous. There's no way in hell President Ma can significantly improve Taiwan's political situation -- by selling her out lock stock and barrel.
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Anonymous said...

No, you will only get from the PRC what they were willing to give to you 30 years ago, everything else is humbug. But things look quite dire, no matter how you look at them.