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Latest on Lin Yi-hsiung (林義雄)

The most definitive word yet came on Sunday from Lin himself, who said he would not run for office now. But he added that the political situation can change suddenly, and that perhaps his own opinion on this topic could change, so he won't rule out a run.

It seems like a smart thing to say. It could make him the go-to candidate if both Su and Hsieh have problems of their own when it comes to special allowance funds.


林義雄目前不選總統 未來不設限 (自由時報)

DPP infighting over Kaohsiung County-04

Kaohsiung County Councilor Chen Wai Man (陳慧文) and legislator Lin Tai-hua (林岱樺) both registered to run in Kaohsiung Co.-04. Yesterday, the two candidates agreed to use an opinion poll to decide the candidate in the district (a move Lin says favors Chen) and not to sling any mud.

Hours after the agreement, Chen Wai Man made an announcement highlighting some comments Lin Tai-hua had made about A-bian's state affairs fund. Apparently, the comments Lin had made at that time were rather unfavorable.

Lin held a press conference today to slam Chen's tactic as back-stabbing. Chen said she was merely quoting Lin and telling the truth, so there was no mud slinging going on at all.

This is another demonstration on how precarious a situation both parties are in considering the shrinking of available legislative seats.

民進黨鳳山立委初選相互攻訐 縣黨部籲節制 (中央社)

民進黨高雄縣立委選舉鳳山市選區提名初選候選人立委林岱樺、縣議員陳慧文達成協議以民調決定提名人選，且不得相互攻訐；林岱樺今天發現陳慧文攻訐文宣，要求黨部主持公道；陳慧文表示，她陳述事實，不是攻訐；民進黨高縣黨部表示遺憾，報請黨中央處理。

More on that Lin Yi-Hsiung (林義雄) run

There is more news regarding the possibility of Lin Yi-Hsiung (林義雄) running for president. Looks like I may lose that bet after all. Please notice that so far, basically nobody is willing to say anything about about Lin and the KMT seems to have had the sense to think before they speak (they haven't said anything yet).

Members of the Gikong church will establish the "Friends of Lin Yi-hsiung" organization today, a standard precursor to a presidential run. They also said they would push Lin to run, something that could well hurt the DPP if he ran outside the party. Several of those said to be backing Lin are founding DPP members.

Update: One founder of the "Friends" organization, Chiu Yi-fong (邱一峰), held a press conference to say he had presented Lin with a petition to run and that Lin "had not enthusiastically said yes" (沒有積極說好) but had not refused either. Chiu said he was hoping for the people to get their candidate without dependence on the big donors. Source: CNA article 邱一峰籌組林義雄之友會 籲林義雄選總統

Update 2: Lin will help lead a rally at the Taichung Main Station this Saturday which aims to "repair the refereda law and return direct power to the people" (「補正公投法，還我直接民權」). The rally is being held by a group who wants a referendum on the 4th nuclear power plant. The sensitive timing of such a high profile event is unlikely to be a coincidence, especially considering how well Lin has avoided the spotlight these last several months. Source: CNA's 林義雄明現身台中 宣揚補正公投法還直接民權

Update 3: According to a China Times article, a person close to Lin says that he is aware of the problems invovled with getting a DPP nomination considering 4 others have registered and the primary is soon. This source indicates Lin would be willing to run if there's strong public support, if the four current registrees would step aside, and if the party would give him a window. (Although this is an unnamed source, this one seems to fall in line with what I would expect from Lin.)

In response, DPP legislative caucus whip Wang Sing-nan (王幸男) said this was the church's idea and that Lin knew nothing about it. He added that if Lin did want to run to represent the DPP this election, the time and the system (perhaps a reference to the nomination process) were not suitable. Caucus leader Ker Chien-ming (柯建銘) said he had never heard Lin wanted to run.

Annette Lu (呂秀蓮) thought it would be a good idea to say that Lin would not represent the DPP for the next election because he left the party last year. She said he did have the right to run as an Independent.

Su Chen-chang (蘇貞昌) said as long as he hadn't been nominated by the party process, he'd be willing to step aside and work to get Lin elected. Kao Chien-chih (高建智), a legislator seen as close to Frank Hsieh (謝長廷), would only say that while everyone respect Lin Yi-hsiung, Hsieh is a better candidate due to his experience as premier and mayor. He also believes the primary should go on as scheduled.

Tien Chiu-chin (田秋堇), a legislator close to Lin, says she's been in touch with Lin's wife. Tien says Lin's wife said that Lin hadn't known about the "Friends of Lin Yi-hsiung" organization and that while some have asked him to run for president, he normally responds with a big smile and a laugh. The wife also said Lin has not raised the topic with her and they have not talked about it.
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That's a lot less of a total denial than I would have expected if Lin is not interested. Not good news for my bet that Lin wouldn't run. But I think the timing is late; it will be hard to alter the nomination process with the opinion poll and party primary scheduled to occur so soon. There are also internal party regulations that should prevent a "new member" (like Lin would be considered if he entered again) from getting the nomination.

In other words, at this point any Lin run would almost have to be as an independent, and I think everyone knows that would be a lot worse for the greens than for the blues. I just don't see those die-hard KMT guys willing to vote even for a Saint like Lin, and I'm not sure how much the light-blue public relates to him. In other words, Lin would pull almost only green votes and not very many blue votes away, which would result in a blue win.

Since I'm sure he knows this risk, I still doubt Lin will run despite all the talk.

林義雄選總統？ 蘇揆：未獲黨提名前願退讓 (中央社)
呂秀蓮：林義雄若參選 不是代表民進黨 (中央社)
林義雄參選2008？ 綠營：時間不對制度不合 (中央社)
政治天王惡鬥 朝野立委：甭擱亂了 (中央社)

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News briefs

Wu asks legislative losers to work for Ma's '08 campaign, takes shot at Wang
Responding to pressure to find jobs for those legislators who will be unemployed after the new districting system cuts off half the seats, KMT party chairman Wu Poh-hsiung says he hopes those who don't get nominated will work on the '08 election team. Wu also hinted that Wang Jin-pyng needed to check his own heart for hatred before suggesting a minority's political elite (KMT high-level so-called mainlanders) were controlling the majority (so called native Taiwanese).

DPP pushes referenda, WHO using Taiwan
The DPP has resolved to push a three part referenda strategy before the '07 election. First, they seek to lower the barriers to the referenda and remove the power of a legislative committee to pre-approve certain referenda. Second, they will continue to push their KMT party assets referendum. And third, they would probably be interested in a constitution-related referendum. The KMT is not amused and will (successfully) block most of these measures (they are weakest on the party assets referendum).

The DPP also wants to apply for the WHO under the name of Taiwan (not really referenda related, I supose).

TSU will decide on whether or not to change their name on 4/21 (ETToday)

Fire update

The police say they believe the fire up at Chiang Kai-shek's former residence was probably arson, and they will be looking into it. The blues continue to blame the "de-Chiangize" campaign, while A-bian has said the perpetrator must be caught and handled according to law.

Mother tongue education day

Liberty Times also has several articles on mother tongue education day and how it's working. The idea is that on one day a week、kids use a mother language (Holo Taiwanese、Hakka、or an aboriginal language) for all classes that day.

The goal is to give the kids more of a chance to practice than half an hour a day for twice a week (the way elementary school does it now) and to extend the education through high school. It also aims to introduce this chance without adding a lot of homework、which you would get if you added another class.

The articles discuss both some of the progress and some of the problems that occur. As you can imagine、considering Taiwan's diverse lingusitic situation and the length of time these languages were supressed、it's not always easy to get qualified teachers and divide students into the appropriate groups.

Obviously、aboriginal communities have an especially big problem promoting the use of their tongue in a classroom for the whole day.

Will "excluding blues" actually exclude greens?

The DPP had decided to exclude voters unless they identify greens from their poll for at large legislative nominees, but an article in the Liberty Times today said that it may well exclude greens, since greens are more likely not to express an opinion during polls. The fear has a basis, I think, as evidenced by the fact that most polls tend to indicate more blue support than the real results of an election.

KMT localization faction (本土派) watch

There are frequent reports in the newspapers here about the "localization" faction (本土派) and more lately the "pro-Wang [Jin-pyng] (王金平)" faction (挺王派), but it is normally difficult to tell who belongs to these factions.

That's probably for a good reason. Any group of people within the KMT that openly identified with DPP-like Taiwan-oriented policies would likely face a quick flushing. That's why even Wang himself, who is seen as the faction's leader, has said in the past "not to call him" a pro-localization figure (「不要叫我本土派」). Only when announcing he would not run did he bring any localization-related complaints out into the open.

The secretive nature of the faction is also a result of a practical decision by reporters. They may only be able to get KMT figures who lean toward localization to make any statements unnamed or off the record. And if questioned on the record, these legislators or officials may well deny, as Wang did, having anything to do with a localization faction.

In addition, the issue is further complicated the overlap with another reform-minded group in the KMT, Often called the "50s-60s Alliance" or the "Middle-aged faction" (五六聯隊、青壯派). And remember, pro-localization does not mean pro-DPP.

That being said, one can still gather some sense of which legislators are thought of as pro-localization or pro-Wang. Let's take a look at the list, gathered using a few internet resources I've linked to here. And I will try to keep you updated on who is going to run for re-election in the next legislative run once the KMT has chosen all its nominees.

Pro-localization legislators (本土派) (11)
Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) | Hsu Shu-po (許舒博) | Tseng Tsai Mei-tso (曾蔡美佐) | Lin Yi-shih (林益世) | Lo Shih-hsiung (羅世雄) | Lin Nan-sheng (林南生) | Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) | Shyu Jong-shyoung (徐中雄) | Chen Hung-chang (陳宏昌) | Apollo Chen (陳學聖) | Chang Chang-tsai (張昌財)

Pro-localization KMT Central Standing Committee Members who aren't legislators (2)
Hung Yu-chin (洪玉欽) | Chu Feng-chi (朱風芝)

Other legislators called pro-Wang (5)

Huang Chao-shun (黃昭順)¹ | Ho Tsai-feng (侯彩鳳) | Caucus whip Kuo Su-chun (郭素春) | Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) | Chang Sho-wen (張碩文)

¹ Huang doesn't like the label

Sources:
Taipei Times article
This pdf document, which seems damaged but who's content could be seen in part on google search results

Fire sparks mud slinging

A fire this morning at the Grass Mountain Chateau (草山行館), a former residence of Chiang Kai-shek (蔣介石) on Yang-ming Mountain (陽明山), caught fire early this morning.

Considering the political debate going on now about "de-Chiangize" (去蔣化), some people suspect a political motivation for the fire.

Police have said the fire is unusual and probably have leads they aren't announcing.

Taipei mayor Hau Long-bin (郝龍斌) said that he will not rule out any possibility, considering the sensitive time the fire has come at. Legislator John H. Chiang (蔣孝嚴), who is Chiang Kai-shek's illegitimate son, not only expressed his "outrage" at the incident, but also said the root cause of the fire was obviously "de-Chiangize" campaign.

The DPP for it's part mostly marveled at the imagination of the KMT. But I think they'll be wrong on this one. At the same time, it's obviously not their fault and not a result of the "de-Chiangize" campaign. It's a result of some people hating Chiang Kai-shek for being a dictator.

Aboriginal names now easier to restore

In order to make it more convenient for aboriginal Taiwanese to restore their traditional name, the government will take applications from any Household Registration Office.

In the past, aboriginal people were forced to use a Chinese name on their national ID cards, passports and all other documents as part of the KMT campaign to assimilate the natives.

So far, 6,613 out of 470,000 aboriginies have restored traditional names.

Someone restoring a traditional name has three choices; to use Chinese characters to give a phonetic approximation of their name, to use romanization, or to have both a standard Chinese name in characters with an aboriginal name in romanization.

Wu Poh-hsiung (吳伯雄) wins KMT chair election

Wu won by a huge margin in the KMT election. Reports say turnout in most places was in the 40, 50 or 60 percent range of the 320,000 eligible KMT member voters. The final result was 86.8% to 13.2% for Hong Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱).


attack dog accidentally taking out the Sorry to disappoint all of you who were looking forward to Hong'sKMT's aging Central Standing Committee after hearing someone say "A-bian."

By the way, here are some links to info on that Committe. It's interesting to see how old these guys are and where they're from. But note there's not that many old guys born on the mainland left on the Committee, either.

洪玉欽 | 李紀珠 | 沈慶京 | 姚江臨 | 許顯榮 | 曾永權 | 蔣孝嚴 | 王事展 | 帥化民 | 李全教 | 黃昭順 | 連勝文 | 胡志強 | 洪秀柱 | 盧秀燕 | 郭素春 | 王志剛 | 賴士葆 | 丁守中 | 吳志揚 | 侯彩鳳 | 劉銓忠 | 朱鳳芝 | 蔣方智怡 | 潘維剛 | 陳釘雲 | 吳育昇 | 林滄敏 | 蔡正元 | 華 真 | 徐中雄

Legislature's been busy

In spectacular fashion, the legislature again managed to accomplish nothing today. Bills including this year's budget, changes to Taiwan/China Post's name, nominations for various government posts, and a proposal for a constitutional amendment (on what, I wonder?) were all shot down.

Wang not running; Shih's third force

Head of the Legislative Yuan Wang Jin-pyng announced today that he will not register for the KMT primary. He made several complaints that are far more controvertial, divisive and irritated than most of the things this man says (he's my favorite KMT man because he rarely speaks nonsense, even if that means he's kept quiet on obvious KMT contradictions and problems).

Wang complained that a minority had control over the ethnic majority in the party; questioned if such a minority of political experts and stars had the qualifications to rule over the majority; and said the whole procedure was rigged from the beginning with no chance of a fair contest. He will focus on maintaining the KMT majority in the legislature (a good political issue to grab since the KMT will stop the KMT without question in that election due to the districting and seat numbers.

Ma, sees the problem as a minority trying to avoid discrimination and be liked enough by the majority to get elected, and feels his odds are good.

This also doesn't bode well for future Ma-Wang cooperation. I believe Wang's plan involves sitting out and waiting for Ma to be charged, even if he is running no matter what (thanks Michael).

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Former DPP chairman and leader of the "Depose A-bian" campaign, Shih Ming-teh, has announced the next phase of his plan.

Shih said that while he would not run in the year-end legislative elections, the anti-Chen campaign would organize a "third force" and nominate candidates to offer the people a choice beyond the green-versus-blue division.

Shih said that while he would not run in the year-end legislative elections, the anti-Chen campaign would organize a "third force" and nominate candidates to offer the people a choice beyond the green-versus-blue division.

He said campaign staffers had anticipated that "Chen or the Democratic Progressive Party could break Chen's promise made last Nov. 5 that he would step down if first lady Wu Shu-jen (吳淑珍) were found guilty in the first trial [in the `state affairs' fund case]."

... He did not, however, provide any specific details about his new anti-Chen campaign.

Now this is a threat to the KMT and PFP since many wanna-be legislators won't get nominated. The KMT already has 152 people registered to run for a mere 113 nominations. That doesn't include all the city councils and local officials who had wanted to run but were denied the right to to register. And splitting over to the Shih camp may be seen as safer by some KMT guys than switching over to the DPP side.

I'm not sure Shih will be able to exert any influence at all, but any influence he does exert will be bad news for the blues.

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