We ought to discuss now...

... when the year end elections produce a map stacked precipitously in favor of the KMT, to some degree or another, there will be a public outcry from some DPP supporters about how the democratic system in place is simply unfair.

So we have to ask: at this level of elections, to what extent is the KMT's disproportionate victory a function of institutional flaws, and to what extent is it a function of politico-cultural habits or norms?

If you ask me, it seems to be mostly the latter. The KMT's political machine is a perfect tool for low level politicians who hope to get elected, move an agenda and move up the ranks; that alone attracts a lot of local talent, and most capable candidates that don't want to go with the KMT just run as independents at the township/village level or county council level of elections. The DPP does quite poorly in those elections, as we saw in last week's analysis. So the DPP brand at that level is damaged, and the party simply doesn't attract most of the people who are likely to win.

Theoretically there's no institutional reason that the party branding should remain so favorable to one side, but the KMT just has the momentum in a way you would think would have fallen apart in most two party systems. Still, this seems to be a function of candidate and perhaps voter habits more than anything.

The once carefully crafted and nefarious relationship between the Farmers/Fishermen's Associations and the KMT can probably be counted as an institutional flaw, but I'd let someone who knows more about it talk about it in comments.

I can't think of institutional reasons the DPP shouldn't be able to win more at the county commissioner level, as they are running in big districts with (until now, anyway) static borders and in which the voter count is high enough that vote buying is not very effective. But the KMT is likely to wipe the floor with the DPP (again) this year at that level too.

Is the KMT dominance at even the county commissioner level simply a function of the popular local talent pool the KMT can cultivate at the lower levels? Are there budgetary or business reasons that could be considered institutional?

All contributions welcome in comments!

Yunlin special election

Both parties are now going through the process of picking a candidate; the DPP will likely go with Liu Chian-kuo (劉建國), the candidate during the regular election, assuming his poll numbers look good. The KMT will pick a candidate by month's end, and announce a time table for picking the Taoyuan and Pingtung county commissioner candidates tomorrow.

The dangers of redistricting

Taiwanese blogger Richter, whose main focus is Taiwan-related maps of various kinds, has just posted about the redistricting that was implemented in October 1950, when Taiwan's administrative regions were redrawn from eight counties and nine cities into 16 counties and five cities.

These historic battles are a reminder of what may be in store for us as county and local government lines are redrawn!

There was quite a battle for where the seats of new county government's would be placed. Taichung's Fengyuan and Chinshui were pitted agianst each other, as were Douliou and Huwei in then Yunlin County.

Suspicions in Fengyuan that Chinshui was the favored location for the county seat caused Fengyuan leaders, such as village head Chen Shui-tan (陳水潭), to appeal to the Taiwan Provincial Senate. Chen praised Fengyuan's levels of education, hygine, beautiful weather and natural beauty before taking a swipe at Chinshui for being a coastal town subject to bad weather and akin to a coastal dessert.

Naturally, the Chinshui people were rather indignant, and put in their own appeal to the Taiwan Provincial Senate, which claimed the Fengyuan was full of it. They noted the coast's crucial importance both to the economy and the historic Han settlement of Taiwan, and also made note of that Chinshui was the true population center of the new county as well.

The Chinshui-Fengyuan competition is the root origin of the Red and Black factional struggle for control in Taichung County that has continued to this day, though this split is less pronounced than decades ago.

In the case of Yunlin, apparently most local representatives called for Huwei to be the seat of Yunlin's county government; it was established in Douliou anyway. That caused 5 districts in Yunlin's Beigang area asked to be integrated in Chiayi instead.

For those with a general interest in the problems of redistricting, consider the following books:

Bushmanders and Bullwinkles: How Politicians Manipulate Electronic Maps and Census Data to Win Elections

Redistricting in Comparative Perspective

How to Lie with Maps

Party Lines: Competition, Partisanship, And Congressional Redistricting

Elbridge Gerry's Salamander: The Electoral Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution
Redistricting and Representation: Why Competitive Elections are Bad for America (Controversies in Electoral Democracy and Representation)

I had forgotten about this variable

Taipei Times reports...

The Executive Yuan set a goal of reducing the number of third-level local governments from 368 to between 100 and 150 yesterday, one week after approving the upgrade of Taipei County, the merger of Kaohsiung County and the municipality of Kaohsiung City, the merger of Taichung City and Taichung County, and the merger of Tainan City with Tainan County...

The administrative borders of townships and villages in the revamped areas will have to be redrawn because of differing regulations. The biggest difference is that districts chiefs in a municipality are appointed by the city mayor, while heads of counties and cities in counties and cities are elected by popular vote.

The central government, however, has not yet decided whether to apply the current regulations to the new municipalities.

Liao said that remapping the borders of townships and villages is a necessity in view of the significant population gaps in different townships and villages....

The government will also promote cooperation between the existing localities by grouping them into seven blocs: Taipei, Keelung and Ilan; Taoyuan, Hsinchu and Miaoli; Taichung, Changhua and Nantou; Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan; Kaohsiung and Pingtung, Hualien and Taitung; and Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu.

So if the government decides to use the appointing method as in Taipei and Kaohsiung, we have a pretty boring remapping process that just creates a stronger patronage network for mayors in these cities; if the government goes with elections, we may end up with an intrigue-filled remapping as local politicians strive to get districts drawn in ways favorable to them. And again, regardless of what method is used, this means legislative districts in these areas will have to be remapped again.

Preliminary analysis on 2009 elections

Things are not looking good for the DPP at the county magistrate/mayoral level.

Worst case scenario would involve being completely wiped off the map. Success means holding on to their current count of three seats. Best case scenario for the DPP is winning 5 of the total 17 contested positions, picking up Yilan and Penghu.

First, keep in mind [pdf] that party I.D. tracking polls by Global Views Monthly show about 40% of voters consider themselves pan-blue leaning versus 20% who call themselves pan-green leaning. Another 35% consider themselves centrist. So, despite the current rather grim figures that the Ma administration and the KMT legislative caucus can show for their support, the DPP has a lot more work cut out for them in any election.

Second: County commissioner elections are local elections and, unsurprisingly, result hinge on local issues and individual popularity. That is why you can see overwhelming victories for candidates in some counties, with upward to 70% of the vote going to the winner; he's well known and well liked. More like a club president than a politician at that stage, really.

Third: the DPP positions in Yunlin and Chiayi county are likely threatened by the corruption charges pending against those incumbent county commissioners, who have already been renominated. Chiayi is probably a little safer. Pingtung seat could be lost if the KMT holds down the number of popular blue-leaning candidates to just one. Losing those three seats could mean the whole map is painted blue.

On the potentially positive side, The DPP's Penghu candidate, Cai Chien-hsing (蔡見興), is native to the offshore islands and was a former KMT member who went rogue and then flipped to the green side in 2004. He's been on the Kaohsiung City Council, and a personality like his may be able to win in Penghu, especially considering the KMT incumbent there did not win by much last time around.

The DPP's Ilan candidate Lin Tsong-shyan (林聰賢) is a former Luodong township chief (that's an urban township) who won by large margins. He is also an ancient rival of the current incumbent. He seems like a reasonable choice by the DPP to run and has some shot at winning a seat.

===============

You can expect similarly abysmal results for the DPP at the city council and township chief level, where the KMT and non-partisans have dominated since the days of martial law. Here are the percentage break downs of seats won the level last time elections were held, based on CEC data:

	KMT	DPP	Ind.	Other
Township/village chiefs	54%	11%	34%	1%
City/county councils	45%	21%	28%	5%

Although redistricting will have some effect on exactly who runs and wins in what areas, we can't expect the over all numbers to change a great deal.

So, there you have it! And having taken a hard look at the numbers, I will now go cry a little bit.

Yunlin is just the tip of the iceberg

You knew I would get all hot and bothered by this story:

The Tainan branch of the Taiwan High Court yesterday annulled the election victory of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislator Chang Sho-wen (張碩文).

The ruling is final. Chang may not appeal....

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) spokesman Cheng Wen-tsang (鄭文燦) said that the party would choose a candidate for the by-election in Yunlin within a week, adding that the party was confident of winning the legislative seat.

Several people within the KMT are interested in the seat; the Liberty Times reports two people are gunning for the DPP nomination, namely Liu Chien-kuo (劉建國) and Yunlin County Deputy Commissioner Lee Ying-yuan (李應元).

Expect infighting; Yunlin is a faction-ridden place, like most districts in Taiwan. This particular district is the coastal district, so fisherman's organizations will be at least as important as farmers' organizations.

Meanwhile, preparations are underway to begin radically re-mapping Taiwan's townships, villages and cities thanks to the redrawing that will be triggered by the creation of more special municipalities. That will probably in turn trigger redistricting at the legislative level, which will create new opportunities for gerrymandering.

The redrawing process will be messy and full of intrigue, folks!

And now, for the moment you've all been waiting for ...

... presenting the 2009 County magistrate and mayoral elections map guide! Updated to reflect the recently approved mergers in Tainan, Kaohsiung and Taichung as well as Taipei County's upgrade!


View 2009 County Magistrate/mayoral elections 第十六屆縣(市)長選舉 in a larger map

I know you've just been dying to see it!

Not much data yet; as far as I know, all polls so far have been internal party polls, none of which have been publicly released. As more info comes in, the map will continue to be updated!

Note: this map does not reflect that at the same time, county/city council and township/village chief elections will be held at the same time (Dec. 5, 2008). Frankly, I feel there's little point putting that on the map for now. There will be almost no polling, I imagine, and those results are probably better studied in spreadsheet form. But we will be watching and analyzing those results as well!

Round up

Perhaps most interestingly is a survey by the pro-independence Taiwan Thinktank showing 71% of people support putting the ECFA to referendum, with 61% being fans of the DPP's referendum wording and just as many saying they'd go cast a vote.

If you're still confused about the controversy surrounding the decision to merge Taichung and Kaohsiung Cities & Counties, turn Taipei County into its own city, and leave Tainan and other smaller counties pretty much the way they are, let me act as your guide. Update: Looks like Tainan got the upgrade after all!

Being a special municipality means getting a bigger budget. Basically, according to the Local Government Act (地方制度法), the main qualification for promotion to a special municipality is a population of at least 2 million. Greater Tainan falls just short of that (about 1.8 million), which is why the Executive Yuan ended up giving them the promotion.

Many accused the committee of making openly partisan decisions, which was more or less nonsense. What is of concern is the fact that elections in those upgraded areas are going to be postponed until next year, to coincide with Taipei and Kaohsiung City's special municipality elections. The most valid objection is that the move may be unconstitutional. We'll see how that pans out.

Moving on ... Saturday, DPP chair Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) joined the newly established Taiwan Youth Anti-Communist Corps, a move I just shake my head at. Why adopt all the KMT's former language on these topics? I don't think it lends the cause any more legitimacy.

Next, we notice the legislature's failure to pass the bills the Executive Yuan had been gunning for, which shouldn't be surprising. To be fair the legislature did speed through review of a record number of bills, and I'm glad they're not just rubberstamping every Executive request, but at the same time these guys are only doing half day committee meetings most of the time, so if they had worked full time they could have done more.

Let's rename PTS to KMTS.

Seriously, while their programing is still excellent and not partisan, (they are putting out this week what is probably the first show every broadcast in Taiwan with Holo Taiwanese subtitles), news like this is scary.

Lead in all the Chinese language dailies

The question now is about elections -- will they be postponed?

From ICRT:

The Ministry of Interior has approved a radical plan to upgrade Taipei County
to the status of a "municipal city" and the mergers of Taichung and Gaoxiong
cities with their respective counties.

A committee review approved the applications last night, but said that a
similar proposal to merge Tainan City and County will be forwarded to the
Executive Yuan for decision, as the committee was divided on that merger
issue.

Speaking to reporters last night .. Minister of Interior - Liao Liu-yi - said
that proposals by Taoyuan and Zhanghua counties to be upgraded to municipal
cities and merger applications by Yunlin and Jiayi counties were turned down
by the 26-member committee.

The moves come two months after lawmakers amended the Local Government Act -
paving the way for the mergers and upgrades.

According to Executive Yuan Spokesman - Su Chun-bin - the Cabinet will rubber
stamp the committee's decision tomorrow, or Friday and the mergers and
upgrades are expected to take effect sometime in December of next year.

Yes, no, maybe so.

Last Wed., Ma "clarified" (muddled, really) part of his Three Nos pledge: no unification, no independence, and no war.

"No unification," Ma said, "does not mean we rule out the option of unification." The topic has already been covered at Taiwan Matters, among other blogs.

That article remains the hottest topic on Yam's news site today, and one of the more astute commentators asked how this applies to his other pledges.

No independence does not mean we rule out the option of independence?
No use of force does not mean we rule out the option of the use of force?

What sort of pledge is it, really then?

I think that there is some possibility that Ma's comment come sin light of Chinese pressure, but it's impossible to say for sure.

DPP petition is a stupefyingly awful idea

The DPP's decision to start a petition calling for the release of Chen Shui-bian is, I think, reasonable but politically unwise. I'd imagine the impetus for this project came from those Chen allies of the K-incident generation remaining on the party's central committee.

At the end of the day Chen is a massive liability to the DPP's image, and drags them into the past instead of giving them the chance to look into the future.. Whatever the merits of the petition (and it has merits, as Chen's detention and prosecution have been riddled with irregularities), the DPP would be better off throwing him under a bus. That's my cold-blooded advice, at least.

hmmm..

As the DPP prepares a petition drive to "free Chen Shui-bian" from his detention, a tremendous blow is dealt to Chen's case; his daughter Chen Shing-yu (陳幸妤) and son-in-law Chao Chien-ming (趙建銘) plead guilty hours ago in court to perjury, according to lawyers. Apparently son Chen Chih-chung (陳致中) also admitted guilt today.

Chen Shing-yu was, as always, hounded by reporters and she apparently even somehow took an umbrella to the face. She came with a group of body guards who ended up getting into a shoving match with the media, since I'm sure everyone wanted a camera very close to her face. You can see the very unflattering picture TVBS submitted on the right here.

In any case, I imagine this development is really going to put this circus of a case on the fast track to completion. So far they are apparently only pleading guilty without providing more details like which parts of their statements were false; we'll see what happens.

What a nightmare.

Did Su Tseng-chang read my editoral?

Who cares? I'd like to flatter myself by thinking so, especially since ol' Smiling Light Bulb has always been my man, but whatever his inspiration, at least he's saying similar things.

Round up

First, I have a post on Taiwan Matters about Ma's rather out of the blue proposal for cross-strait cooperation on publishing a dictionary. See it here.

Second, Reuters' Ralph Jennings mistook me for Tim Maddog, apparently due to overlooking the byline on this post about my Liberty Times editorial. I personally disliked two lines in Ralph's blog post:

China claims sovereignty over self-ruled Taiwan. Ma, Taiwan’s president, likes China. The opposition and the blogger don’t like either.

Why not also highlight that Ma not only likes but claims China? The opposition's, and Maddog's, main objection to both the KMT and the CCP policy is the false assertion that they are the single legitimate government of a single country. That is the root cause for the troubled waters in the Taiwan Strait.

Ralph also implies I'm somehow on the DPP pay roll as and advisor, which would be sweet, but it's not true.

The editorial text identifies Cox as an American-born, one-time student of Mandarin Chinese who gives advice to Taiwan’s main opposition party.

I'm flattered that Mr. Jennings keeps both myself and Tim Maddog on his mind.

Finally, after having read others' comments on this blog and at Taiwan Matters, I have decided the DPP referendum on holding a referendum for the ECFA really is stupid after all, if only because a successful referendum boycott could be billed as an ECFA endorsement. The referendum should have been worded so that if it failed to pass, the result would look like a rejection of the ECFA.