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Sep 21, 2011

Bam

Latest DPP survey out of the DPP English blog supports a basic contention most of the pro-green camp has been making for a long time -- that Taiwanese do not support the underlying principles of the '92 consensus; and  they believe the ROC is the same as Taiwan, not merely one of its provinces.

The survey closes with what I consider to be more leading questions about approval of Tsai's latest policy proposals, but overall I feel those first several questions probably present a very representative view of Taiwan public opinion. 

Link

I really enjoyed this article by Will Wilkinson. 

Sep 20, 2011

台灣人能接受「台灣中國同屬於同一個國家」嗎?

「台灣共識」又是一碟空心菜 | 社論 | 意見評論 | 聯合新聞網

只有在「中華*民國就是台灣,台灣就是中華民國」的前提下,台灣人才能接受中華民國及中華民國憲法為「台灣共識」。主要的矛盾是,聯合報這個社論指的中華民國憲法則是包含整個中華人民共和國的一個不存在的「中華民國」。硬要人家接受台灣只是全中國的一個省是行不通的政策。因此,社論的作者只好故意不提馬政府針對中華民國及中華民國憲法的定義。所有的民調都很清楚,台灣人絕對不會認同說台灣現行的憲法是個「台灣中國同屬於同*一個國家」的憲法,假如人民有馬政府跟聯合報的這種理解的話,大多數人馬上就一定會開始支持正名制憲的運動。

再來,社論讚美的「一中各表」、「不統/不獨/不武」,「主權互不承認/治權互不否認」通通尚未得中國的承認,反而一直被中國認定為「兩國論」的原則。雖然中國了解說國民黨因為民意給的壓力也不得不喊這種帶著個「獨派味」的口號,但是最近的維基解密也證明說中國一樣認定馬政府接受的「九二共識」就是「一中原則」,中國也到現在認為未來台灣有一個選項而已,那就是必須以一國兩制來進行和平統一。

台灣真的要如馬政府一樣先接受「台灣中國同屬於同*一個國家」的前提嗎?這種立場可以叫做台灣最大公約數嗎? 

*Thanks anon.

Sep 16, 2011

Thoughts on Taiwan Wikileaks

One of the more interesting revelations that came out of the Wikileaks news was the split within Chinese leadership about how to react to Ma Ying-jeou's stances. Obviously, they have chosen to move ahead, but I think it's worth noting the significant reservations within China circles about Ma's policies -- ie, fears Ma's a "two China's" kind of guy, and distrust of the "no unification" marker in Ma's "three no's" policy.

Obviously, this is the best the PRC can hope for though, and they've recognized that and moved forward with negotiations. But it sheds a light on the difficulty the PRC will have internally reacting to a DPP victory.  It seems they're already at their "edge" of acceptance with Ma.

Should Tsai win, will ignoring her be adequate? Will they  cancel existing agreements? Before, I was leaning on the "they'll just whine" side, but this is a little more food for thought.

Sep 14, 2011

Tsai in Washington

Listening in live to Tsai's speech at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI). As you would imagine, not a lot of surprises. Some notes I'm taking:

"The overarching goal with managing relations with China is to maintain a peaceful and stable environment so that the Taiwanese people can have the opportunity to develop a prosperous economy ... Ultimately, we want to ensure that the right to determine Taiwan's future rests in the hands of the people of Taiwan, and any change to the status quo must be approved by the people of Taiwan through democratic means. "

She defines the status quo as basically meaning independence, and argues that dogmatic positions are "insufficient" for dealing with China, justifying the DPP being vague on exactly how dialogue with China will continue.

"We will refrain from extreme or radical approaches," she says. We acknowledge that Beijing insists on the One China principle, "But Beijing must understand the reality that the Taiwanese people ... are opposed to a one party system and committed to upholding the independence of their sovereignty. "

"The intensity of economic ties is a reality, and China has already become Taiwan's largest investment destination and trading partner. Economic relations have evolved to an extent that interaction cannot be stopped by either side... "

"The DPP's return to government is inevitable, and hopefully it will happen sooner rather than later."

Question: When you meet with US officials how are you going to assure them that you will continue to promote peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait in the absence of the '92 consensus?

"I essentially told you them what I said today to you in this speech. There are some political preconditions that might be too fragile for the future relationship. By now people generally agree that this ['92 consensus] is a fiction... and it's not going to be a solid foundation for both parties to build a long term and broad coverage relationship. So that is why we propose the Taiwanese people need to get together and get a Taiwan consensus before we go to China and negotiate.... the best way to give a consensus a political life without being disruptive by change of government in Taiwan is through legislation. So if we have a Taiwan consensus of some sort, then we would make that a piece of legislation of Taiwan so that it will govern future governments and administrations. And then, externally, we're talking about a legal basis now, we're talking about agreements of some sort with China... this is not something unusual when you are handling an external relationship."

Re: Mutual non-denial?

"It has a risk element in it, when you're not particularly emphasizing or insisting on your sovereignty,then the international community will think that you're legally non-existent, which is a situation becoming worse and worse now with the Ma administration taking that position, Taiwan's international position is weakening. So while of course people want to have a peaceful and stable relationship across the Taiwan Strait, I want to say that we should at the same time be careful about our position international, especially our legal position since you're a lawyer."