tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post3066435962537211187..comments2023-10-06T18:55:46.317+08:00Comments on That's Impossible! Politics from Taiwan: Why Ma's election means surrender and no hope of independence阿牛http://www.blogger.com/profile/08403972286057197709noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-75854169384730110442007-12-19T11:59:00.000+08:002007-12-19T11:59:00.000+08:00the longer the separation, the harder it will be f...the longer the separation, the harder it will be for both countries to unify together<BR/>dragging and seeing what cards might came up might not be a bad option for Taiwan.<BR/>maybe one day the chinese communist pary will be overthrown and a new democratic republican govt be set up in the mainland.<BR/>I don't see any future mainland leaders wanting to lose Taiwan but who know??Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02437974490814908190noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-83331377439311629702007-12-19T10:32:00.000+08:002007-12-19T10:32:00.000+08:00Well, I suppose it's fair to suggest that I could ...Well, I suppose it's fair to suggest that I could be overstating the case both for Taiwan's future independence option and on the negative impact this treaty would have on those options.<BR/><BR/>I have also heard from very neutral people that they feel there is no choice but to eventually unify, and that all Taiwan can do is get the best deal out of it possible.阿牛https://www.blogger.com/profile/08403972286057197709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-68561782237316641412007-12-18T21:51:00.000+08:002007-12-18T21:51:00.000+08:00The thing is that the chances of formal independen...The thing is that the chances of formal independence for Taiwan are actually astronomically low. China would never agree to it and would certainly go to war if Taiwan declared it/formalised it. The US would not intervene in such a case. <BR/><BR/>Yes, Taiwan could "keep its options open" but even if it did so for a century nothing would change - China's advantage over the island would only grow. Even if China became a democracy it is highly unlikely any governing party would accept Taiwanese independence. The important countries of the world, nor a majority, will ever recognise Taiwan as independent over China's objections. China will not change its mind over time.<BR/><BR/>The "one China" path is the only one available - that's something that a very senior "neutral" politician told me. That does not mean giving Beijing control or authority over Taiwan. Chinese don't care that much how unification occurs so long as it does. A face-saving deal for China that allows Taiwan to carry on as it does now is quite possible - membership of the UN might even be possible. Do Taiwanese want actual independence like they have now in a reliable form, or risk losing it all for a piece of paper they can wave around, which other countries may not give a damn about?<BR/><BR/>I don't agree that signing a deal as you describe (assuming it would happen) would give China the right in the world's eyes to invade Taiwan. The countries that count and have ever cared about Taiwan aren't stupid - they know Taiwanese don't want full unification under terms imposed by China. If anything they would see the signing of an agreement as a strong effort by Taiwan to avoid conflict. If China then said "ok, now we can screw you over on unification and force you to be like Hong Kong" I doubt that the US would side with China. If it did then I can promise you it would have never helped Taiwan prior to such an agreement.Rajhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10034317459759343093noreply@blogger.com