tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post4596386455230879054..comments2023-10-06T18:55:46.317+08:00Comments on That's Impossible! Politics from Taiwan: Peace agreement watch阿牛http://www.blogger.com/profile/08403972286057197709noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-90728525633133828092009-01-14T23:35:00.000+08:002009-01-14T23:35:00.000+08:00Feiren, you are, of course right that the Chinese ...Feiren, you are, of course right that the Chinese never agreed on the fictional consensus. The thing for Ma is that he has sold the consensus in Taiwan as the thing that supposedly protects Taiwan's sovereignty. The more comments like this that Hu makes the better. Hu did not say anything different from what the Chinese have said in the past. But the more he talks about unification on Chinese terms, the harder it is for Ma to say that Taiwan's sovereignty is being protected. And when you combine this with stunts like PLA navy supposedly escorting Taiwanese vessels, Ma's rhetoric begins to look more an more thin.<BR/><BR/>This is important because, as this thread notes, unification on Chinese terms is a non-starter in Taiwan. Ma really really really needs something to glaze the bitter pill. He has been using 1992 consensus. And, you have to admit, Zhonghua Minzu doesn't cut it. Too many Taiwanese just don't see themselves as Chinese. <BR/><BR/>So the only thing left for Ma is to show that Taiwan is benefiting from all of this crap. This is where the success of the casinos, and the flights, and the direct shipping is crucial for him. But if Taiwanese don't feel that they are getting much out of it, then Ma has nothing left.<BR/><BR/>He is being sapped on several fronts at once. I don't know if it will be enough to trip up that annoying horse, but I do know that comments such as Hu's don't help his case.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-57179501966371003762009-01-14T22:28:00.000+08:002009-01-14T22:28:00.000+08:00Feiren@1 said "I would argue that the civil war en...Feiren@1 said <I>"I would argue that the civil war ended withe the Chiang regime in the late 1980s and Taiwan emerged as a self-determining democracy"</I><BR/>This is so true. But while all of Taiwan has moved on, the KMT clique still pine for the homeland. I see they are still fighting that civil war only now under the (thin) guise of a democracy.Stephenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04683033699604269541noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-20358343519915309302009-01-14T14:43:00.000+08:002009-01-14T14:43:00.000+08:00...Is it me or does "Zhonghua minzu" bring back th....<BR/>.<BR/>.<BR/>Is it me or does "Zhonghua minzu" bring back the days of Nazism -- with the "Aryan race". Seriously, this kind of talk scares the shit out of me.<BR/><BR/>Can we PLEASE start living in the 21rst century?!! Is that too hard to ask?<BR/>.<BR/>.<BR/>.skiingkowhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05381159852660053893noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-22741075003371821682009-01-14T12:09:00.000+08:002009-01-14T12:09:00.000+08:00I think Ma has already shifted away from the alleg...I think Ma has already shifted away from the alleged 1992 consensus--or replace it with new content.<BR/><BR/>China has never agreed that the 1992 Consensus refers to One China Different Interpretations. Instead, both he and Ma have bee fudging this key point by replace Different Interpretations with the Chinese Race (zhonghua minzu). So the new formulation is One China One Chinese Race with the implication that the minzu includes both of its political manifestations--the PRC and the ROC. The proposed peace treaty is almost like a Hegelian dialectic in that the two competing forces, the KMT and the CCP are will be resolved by the Minzu synthesis.<BR/><BR/>On a more practical level, Hu is just using typical hard ball negotiating tactics. China was forced by Taiwan's democracy to give in on the three links and other economic incentives in order to remain relevant to Taiwan. Of course China has done everything it can to make these concessions have as little real value as possible.<BR/><BR/>But now that those concession have been made, Hu is demanding far more in return from Ma and Taiwan. He knows he won't get even close to what he is demanding, but he might get more that Taiwan was initially willing to give if Ma gets desperate for 'breakthroughs' to shore up his failing administration.Michael Faheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11057491107522344042noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-13430771858439887112009-01-14T10:58:00.000+08:002009-01-14T10:58:00.000+08:00A Gu, you might want to also have a look at this a...A Gu, you might want to also have a look at this analysis in the China Brief of the Jamestown Foundation if you haven't already. It does a good job of bringing together opinions published in newspapers across the political spectrum. <BR/><BR/>http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=34333&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=11701d2ca6<BR/><BR/>Moreover, Russel Hsiao, the writer, correctly comes to the conclusion that short-term political solutions are not possible. He also says what many in the KMT are avoiding saying. Hu's speech has put Ma in a bind because it undermines the 1992 Consensus.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-22246971062909445872009-01-14T09:52:00.000+08:002009-01-14T09:52:00.000+08:00What I find so amusing about the CDN's position is...What I find so amusing about the CDN's position is the assumption that most Taiwanese are comfortable being grouped as Zhonghua Minzu. Question that one assumption, and the whole idea falls apart.Tommyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13552370490869601403noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-52197473114477139532009-01-13T18:08:00.000+08:002009-01-13T18:08:00.000+08:00So it looks like we will end up with the economic ...So it looks like we will end up with the economic and international space concessions that China had to give in order to keep Taiwan in the game--i.e. to try to build some sentiment for closer relations with China by binding their economies together. However, a peace treaty is just not going to happen under these conditions as you rightly point out. <BR/><BR/>I find the whole notion of a peace treaty dangerous because it subsumes the Taiwan question back under into the context of the Chinese civil war. I would argue that the civil war ended withe the Chiang regime in the late 1980s and Taiwan emerged as a self-determining democracy. The whole discussion of a peace treaty assumes a state of hostilities that has not existed for many, many years. Any new hostilities would be acts of war by China against Taiwan, not a furtherance of the civil war.Michael Faheyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11057491107522344042noreply@blogger.com