tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post2816696255862663941..comments2023-10-06T18:55:46.317+08:00Comments on That's Impossible! Politics from Taiwan: A point of Blue thinking阿牛http://www.blogger.com/profile/08403972286057197709noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-55033418673468238592010-05-02T08:27:15.987+08:002010-05-02T08:27:15.987+08:00FOARP,
I think a main point you bring up is the ...FOARP, <br /><br />I think a main point you bring up is the same point I'm trying to drive home -- that the blue evaluation is ambivalent to closer ties, seeing little danger. There's less emphasis on Chinese ability to leverage other ties to force unification. <br /><br />I think theories on how other ties can lead to greater Chinese leverage for unification efforts is a well covered topic, and I did not cover them in the post. Perhaps another day.阿牛https://www.blogger.com/profile/08403972286057197709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-30759423646610762372010-05-01T15:28:58.096+08:002010-05-01T15:28:58.096+08:00Could it possibly be because the closer economic a...Could it possibly be because the closer economic and cultural links that the KMT supports do nothing concrete to further unification? That KMT supporters believe that the sovereignty of the ROC is not any more threatened with the ECFA than it is without? <br /><br />You seem to be offering a caricature of pro-blue views as being ignorant or self-deceiving for not seeing the relevance of mainland pro-unification policies in closer cultural/economic ties without actually explaining the process by which closer economic and cultural links are supposed to be parleyed into forced unification. <br /><br />It is not enough to oppose such links because you do not trust mainland motives <i>if they are of long-term benefit to the Taiwanese people</i>. The old one about 'economic blackmail' makes no sense, at least not given the way that mainland China is already Taiwan's biggest trade partner and target for investment by far, and became so under a pan-green president.Gilman Grundyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06607416440240634159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-43997280757802422132010-04-24T23:01:29.868+08:002010-04-24T23:01:29.868+08:00@last anon: so, who do you think WILL control Taiw...@last anon: so, who do you think WILL control Taiwan in the middle or longterm if annexation happens? The Taiwanese? In which fantasy world do you have to live in to prefer to be ruled by a bunch of old sacks sitting in Beijing, when you can have an elected government?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-57507898371761970802010-04-23T13:54:46.972+08:002010-04-23T13:54:46.972+08:00"They figure the Taiwanese electorate just wo..."They figure the Taiwanese electorate just wouldn't let unification happen, and China can't force it."<br /><br />There's so much speculation involved here, given the fact that no one can predict the future, or even produce really legitimate reasons for following specific paths of action in the present. That notwithstanding, I think there is _some_ reason behind the thinking illustrated in the above quote. To begin with, the ROC isn't going to just disappear. If you read PRC propaganda (including some of its transformations in western media), it leads you to believe that Taiwan would just "unite" with China, at the snap of one's fingers. But there are significant hurdles to actually _legally_ dissolving the ROC, and they aren't going to disappear (Unless the PRC wishes to dissolve itself into the ROC??). I don't see the citizens of the ROC voting to dissolve themselves under any circumstances. Do you?<br /><br />This brings us to the PRC's "force", and their motives. As for the latter, one recurrent dissatisfaction I have with many "green" opinion pieces is that they greatly simplify PRC intentions. Yes, the PRC's stated intention is to regain Taiwan. But that does not mean, despite all the missiles and the threats, that they're willing to do anything to achieve that. There are other considerations. Like the price of oil, for instance. Taiwan would be happier if the US (and Japan) would simply and outright guarantee their de facto independence, but even without that formal guarantee, the chance remains high (I would say very very high, although I know a lot of people are more cynical about this) that the US would intervene in a PRC-Taiwan conflict. This certainly plays into the PRC's strategic thinking, no matter what they say. A conflict could (I'm not saying _would_) ignite an East Asian conflict, and that would not be to the PRC advantage at all.<br /><br />That leaves the softer forms of force, which I assume is what people are more worried about. That Taiwan's economy would be so bound to the mainlands that resistance would be futile. To this, I say: let's see what ECFA actually says, and perhaps see what ECFA actually does. There are always elections coming up, so there is always a chance to change course. I don't believe Ma is going to be able to do anything (even if he is willing, and I'm not so sure about that, even if everyone I read paints him as the devil incarnate) to set Taiwan on some irreversible course towards union with the PRC.Dnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-54081235936874295282010-04-23T12:07:31.167+08:002010-04-23T12:07:31.167+08:00"And they believe this not because they'r..."And they believe this not because they're misguided, confused, or formerly brain-washed. It's not because they're misled as to the size of Beijing's missiles... it's because they recognize the obvious fact that Beijing doesn't NEED to use force. Beijing is on a trajectory to achieve it's goals without ever firing a bullet."<br /><br />But nowhere in A-gu's post does he mention military force.<br /><br />However, if the Blues recognized that Beijing can achieve it's goals without firing a bullet, then why are they trying to enable that achievement through policies such as ECFA?Robert R.https://www.blogger.com/profile/12956389352825464115noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-7655825219102483952010-04-23T07:31:02.862+08:002010-04-23T07:31:02.862+08:00Yes, and you state pan-Blues are willingly ignorin...Yes, and you state pan-Blues are willingly ignoring "China's intentions and arguments". <br /><br />Uh, no. <br /><br />Although you seem dismissive of their world-view... the vast majority of pan-Blues are able to comprehend Chinese as well as you, and many even have IQs reaching 100. And they understand the PRC's "intentions" of eventually annexing or reunifying Taiwan into a single Chinese nation, but believe that such a move will only occur on Taiwan's terms. <br /><br />And they believe this not because they're misguided, confused, or formerly brain-washed. It's not because they're misled as to the size of Beijing's missiles... it's because they recognize the obvious fact that Beijing doesn't NEED to use force. Beijing is on a trajectory to achieve it's goals without ever firing a bullet.<br /><br />The fantasy of formal Taiwanese independence is an aborted fetus... barring the eruption of WW3, it's a hopeless cause.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-28875699103225263502010-04-23T03:10:37.799+08:002010-04-23T03:10:37.799+08:00There's agreement on the Chinese intentions --...There's agreement on the Chinese intentions -- to annex the island. The disagreement is on how relevant that is.阿牛https://www.blogger.com/profile/08403972286057197709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-89275398468630054832010-04-23T00:10:19.435+08:002010-04-23T00:10:19.435+08:00I think it's just a shame that millions of Tai...I think it's just a shame that millions of Taiwanese aren't blessed with the tremendous analytical abilities that have given you such a crystal clear view of "Chinese intentions" towards Taiwan.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-57417830204195241212010-04-19T23:27:23.157+08:002010-04-19T23:27:23.157+08:00Well said, A-gu. Nice post.Well said, A-gu. Nice post.Islanderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09027760124467699924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-42254403988183125252010-04-19T19:23:40.041+08:002010-04-19T19:23:40.041+08:00This is an extremely good point. I found this to ...This is an extremely good point. I found this to be true as well, but did not fully comprehend its importance. More people should know about this naivety. Many people in Taiwan underestimate what Chinese government can and willing to do to push for annexation IMO.<br /><br />It is funny how frustrating it is to convince the light blue people to take CCP SERIOUSLY, given all the things the CCP has done and said. But then again no one really took Hitler serious until it's too late.<br /><br />The main problem for the DPP and pan Green then becomes how to inform these boneheads to be more cautious in their risk assessment....Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3444895069543408811.post-89243272706736479902010-04-18T20:20:59.120+08:002010-04-18T20:20:59.120+08:00i think too many voters unestimate the effect of l...i think too many voters unestimate the effect of leverage over taiwan china can gain through various non-military means. these people have not waken up to 21st century and still thinks that they are safe as long as not a missile is fires. frankly it's sad and angers me as taiwan is too my country and i cant count on them to protect it.dennisnoreply@blogger.com